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Scoring
#1 Start

Ayomanor

WR · TEN vs BAL

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.3pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Williams

WR · WAS vs IND

Sun 9:30 AM

Proj pts

6.2pts

market

Lower Conf

Antonio Williams or Elic Ayomanor: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Elic Ayomanor over Antonio Williams by 0.1. Elic Ayomanor leads at 6.3. Antonio Williams is the first one out, 0.1 short.

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Highlights

Elic AyomanorStart
WR · TEN vs BAL

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR

Cons

  • Low team total15.5 team total
  • Shaky floor3.0 floor
Antonio WilliamsBench
WR · WAS vs IND

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs WR
  • Big-play upside33% boom weeks

Cons

  • Low target share12% target share
  • Thin volume3.7 targets/g

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

AyomanorStart
WilliamsBench
Projection6.36.2
Floor3.0—
Ceiling8.9—
Target share19%12%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)A+A
Implied team total15.522.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Ayomanor 8, Williams 2.

Latest game on the card: Ayomanor 2.1 (PPR points).

Why Elic Ayomanor

Start Elic Ayomanor — projects 6.3, a favorable matchup vs BAL.

Elic Ayomanor projects 6.3 points on a 3.0–8.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 5.6. Net: start Elic Ayomanor this week.

Working for Ayomanor: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR).

Working against Ayomanor: Low team total (15.5 team total), Shaky floor (3.0 floor).

Where Ayomanor leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.3 vs 6.2); Target share (19% vs 12%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs A); vs season (+1.7 vs +0.0); Consistency (44% vs 33%); Bust rate (25% vs 33%); Targets / game (5.6 vs 3.7); Snap share (81% vs 42%); Red zone targets (8 vs 2).

Why Antonio Williams

Sit Antonio Williams — projects 6.2, a favorable matchup vs IND.

Antonio Williams projects 6.2 points. The matchup grades as favorable against IND. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: bench Antonio Williams this week.

Working for Williams: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs WR), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).

Working against Williams: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.7 targets/g).

Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (22.5 vs 15.5); Last 3 avg (8.4 vs 6.4); Last 5 avg (8.4 vs 8.2); Boom rate (33% vs 19%).

Recent form

Elic Ayomanor's last 5 games: PPR points 13.7, 8, 8.1, 8.9, 2.1 (oldest to newest).

Antonio Williams's last 3 games: PPR points 3.5, 5.4, 16.4 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Ayomanor has already beaten Williams's 6.2 projection in 4 of his 5; Williams has beaten Ayomanor's 6.3 in 1 of his 3.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Elic Ayomanor (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 15.5, spread +11.5.

Antonio Williams (WAS) faces IND, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +3.5.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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