Jeanty
RB · LV @ NYJ
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points15.4pts
Allen
RB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points12.0ptsUsage estimate
Lean
Bench
Ashton Jeanty or Braelon Allen: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Ashton Jeanty over Braelon Allen.
- Ahead by
- +3.4pts
- over Allen
- Confidence
- Moderate
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 95%
- of leagues
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start Braelon Allen instead if you want more carries that keep drives going (42% to 31%).
Risk
The risk: Allen ran for 104 yards and caught 6 for 30 last week (19.4 points).
Highlights
JeantyLeanRB · LV @ NYJUsually 17.4−2.0pts this week
Helps him
- +0.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.68 touchdowns, above his usual 0.57.
- 1.3inside the 5He averages 1.3 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- 6.3per gameHe adds 6.3 targets a game as a receiver.
- 23.7ceilingHis best weeks reach about 23.7 points.
Hurts him
- −1.6ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 28.5 receiving yards, below his usual 44.6.
- −1.4ptscatchesHis lines put him at 3.5 catches, below his usual 4.9.
- 6th toughestper carryEdgeNYJ allows plenty of RB chances because teams run on them a lot; per carry or target they’re tough (0.79 pts, 6th toughest).
AllenFirst outRB · NYJ vs LVUsually 10.9+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- LVvs RBsEdgeLV is the 6th softest defense for running backs.
- +5.9last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 5.9 points above his season average.
Hurts him
- −2.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionJeanty: 15.4 (best)Allen: 12.0
TD pointsof the projectionJeanty: 4.1Allen: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekJeanty: 0.68Allen: Our estimate
Projected team pointsJeanty: 22.0Allen: 23.5 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameJeanty: 1.3 (best)Allen: 0.3
Red zone carriesper gameJeanty: 3.0 (best)Allen: 1.3
Red zone targetsper gameJeanty: 1.6 (best)Allen: 0.7
Role
Snap shareJeanty: 70% (best)Allen: 67%
Usage worthptsJeanty: 20.7 (best)Allen: 11.7
Touch shareJeanty: 41% (best)Allen: 33%
Target shareJeanty: 18% (best)Allen: 10%
Touches / gameJeanty: 20.0 (best)Allen: 15.1
Targets / gameJeanty: 6.3 (best)Allen: 2.9
Air yards shareJeanty: 5% (best)Allen: 0.2%
Vacated touches this weekJeanty: 0.0Allen: 0.0
High value touches / gameJeanty: 6.3 (best)Allen: 2.4
Goal line carry shareJeanty: 82% (best)Allen: 25%
Red zone touches / gameJeanty: 4.4 (best)Allen: 2.0
Rush success rateJeanty: 31%Allen: 42% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Jeanty: 0%Allen: 2.2% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredJeanty: Earned by usage 20.7Scored 17.4Allen: Earned by usage 11.7Scored 10.9
Rush yards / gameJeanty: 46.9Allen: 59.7 (best)
Points from rushingJeanty: 32%Allen: 71%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsJeanty: AboveAllen: Below
WOPRJeanty: 0.30 (best)Allen: 0.16
RZ target shareJeanty: 25% (best)Allen: 22%
Inside 10 target shareJeanty: 0%Allen: 0%
Catch rateJeanty: 77% (best)Allen: 75%
Rushing points / gameJeanty: 5.5 pts / gameAllen: 7.7 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorJeanty: 3.8 pts / gameAllen: 5.1 pts / game (best)
Range
FloorJeanty: 9.8 (best)Allen: 7.8
CeilingJeanty: 23.7 (best)Allen: 19.6
Points from TDssteadier when lowerJeanty: 20%Allen: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Jeanty: 26% (best)Allen: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterJeanty: 4% (best)Allen: 29%
SteadinessJeanty: Very steady (best)±8.0 ptsAllen: Steady±6.2 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmJeanty: BAllen: B+ (best)
Game scriptJeanty: Expected to trailAllen: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterJeanty: 1.1 (best)Allen: 1.7
Defense funnelJeanty: NeutralAllen: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedJeanty: 24th (soft)Allen: 30th (soft) (best)
Backfield roleJeanty: LeadAllen: Lead
Roof / surfaceturfJeanty: OpenAllen: Open
Rest / scheduleJeanty: NormalAllen: Normal
Opp paceJeanty: 28th (slow)Allen: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateJeanty: 14%27th (soft)Allen: 13% (best)29th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedJeanty: 4.112th (average)Allen: 5.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedJeanty: 5th (tough)Allen: 22nd (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameJeanty: 0.1 (best)24th (soft)Allen: 0.01st (tough)
Opp catch rate allowedJeanty: 71%7th (tough)Allen: 93% (best)32nd (soft)
Starting QBJeanty: Cousins (Active)Allen: Smith (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgJeanty: 16.0Allen: 16.8 (best)
Last 5 avgJeanty: 15.8 (best)Allen: 12.8
vs seasonJeanty: −1.4 (Steady)Allen: +5.9 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryJeanty: 3.1Allen: 4.6 (best)
Carries / gameJeanty: 15.1 (best)Allen: 13.0
Yards per route runJeanty: 2.05 (best)Allen: 0.71
Receiving aDOTJeanty: 2.2Allen: 0.2
Touch share trendJeanty: RisingAllen: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesJeanty: 96% (best)Allen: 55%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterJeanty: RB13 (best)Allen: RB21
Yards linerushingJeanty: 49.5Allen: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.