Jeanty
RB · LV vs KC
Proj pts
22.6pts
market
Skattebo
RB · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
21.1pts
market
Ashton Jeanty or Cam Skattebo: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Ashton Jeanty. Bench Cam Skattebo. Ashton Jeanty leads at 22.6. Cam Skattebo is the first one out, 1.4 short.
Crowd: started Jeanty 97% · Skattebo 88%
Highlights
Pros
- Bell-cow role45% of touches
- Spike upside29.3 ceiling
Cons
- Tough matchupTough · D vs RB
- Negative game scriptTrailing
Pros
- Goal-line back1.2 GL carries/g
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
- High floor13.4 floor
Cons
- Committee back15% of touches
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Ashton Jeanty
Start Ashton Jeanty — projects 22.6, a tough matchup vs KC, with a rising role.
Ashton Jeanty projects 22.6 points on a 10.3–29.3 range. The matchup grades as tough against KC. Usage: carries / game at 15.6. Net: Ashton Jeanty is start this week.
Working for Jeanty: Bell-cow role (45% of touches), Spike upside (29.3 ceiling).
Working against Jeanty: Tough matchup (Tough · D vs RB), Negative game script (Trailing).
Where Jeanty leads the head-to-head: Projection (22.6 vs 21.1); Ceiling (29.3 vs 23.0); Touch share (45% vs 15%); Opportunity score (16.1 vs 13.8); Last 3 avg (18.4 vs 12.2); Last 5 avg (15.6 vs 13.0); vs season (-0.5 vs -3.1); Boom rate (18% vs 17%); Carries / game (15.6 vs 12.6); Touches / game (18.9 vs 15.6); Target share (15% vs 13%); Opportunity score (exp pts) (16.1 vs 13.8); Snap share (78% vs 52%); Goal line carries (11 vs 10); Red zone carries (35 vs 24).
Why Cam Skattebo
Sit Cam Skattebo — projects 21.1, a run-funnel matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Cam Skattebo projects 21.1 points on a 13.4–23.0 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against ARI. Usage: carries / game at 12.6. Net: Cam Skattebo is a bench this week.
Working for Skattebo: Goal-line back (1.2 GL carries/g), Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB), High floor (13.4 floor).
Working against Skattebo: Committee back (15% of touches).
Where Skattebo leads the head-to-head: Floor (13.4 vs 10.3); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs D); Consistency (66% vs 42%); Bust rate (0% vs 18%); Yards per carry (4.1 vs 3.7); Grade vs RB (recency weighted) (A vs D).
Recent form
Ashton Jeanty's last 5 games: PPR points 10.3, 12.4, 32.7, 10.3, 12.3 (oldest to newest).
Cam Skattebo's last 5 games: PPR points 18.4, 10, 14.1, 9.5, 13 (oldest to newest).
Jeanty has already beaten Skattebo's 21.1 projection in 1 of his 5; Skattebo has beaten Jeanty's 22.6 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Ashton Jeanty (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
Cam Skattebo (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
What flips it
Jeanty's edge is 1.5 points (22.6 to 21.1). Skattebo's ceiling (23) clears Jeanty's projection, so a big game from Skattebo flips it. Jeanty's floor (10.3) sits under Skattebo's projection, so a quiet game from Jeanty flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Opportunity score
- Expected points from projected volume alone, before any efficiency of this player’s own: each projected touch and target valued at the positional average for the scoring format.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Touch share trend
- The same classification, measured on his share of team touches rather than on his points.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Vacated touches
- Carries and targets belonging to team-mates who are ruled out, on IR, or listed as non-participants for this week, taken at their recent per-game rate.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.