Murray
QB · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points17.4pts
Mayfield
QB · TB vs ATL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points16.2pts
Lean
Bench
Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Kyler Murray over Baker Mayfield.
- Ahead by
- +1.2pts
- over Mayfield
- Confidence
- Moderate
- Lean
- Started
- 46%
- of leagues
Flips if
Start Baker Mayfield instead if you want an offense expected to score more (23.0 points to 21.3).
Risk
Baker Mayfield has played 1 game since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games. Weather in Baker Mayfield's game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff.
Highlights
MurrayLeanQB · MIN @ DETUsually 13.5+3.9pts this week
Helps him
- +3.0ptspass TDsHis lines put him at 1.50 passing TDs, above his usual 0.75.
- +1.1ptsrush TDsHis lines put him at 0.18 rushing TDs, above his usual 0.00.
- +1.0ptspass yardsHis lines put him at 224.5 passing yards, above his usual 198.5.
- DETvs QBsEdgeDET is the softest defense for quarterbacks.
Hurts him
- −0.7ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 23.5 rushing yards, below his usual 30.8.
- 50%dud weeks50% of his games have been dud weeks.
MayfieldFirst outQB · TB vs ATLUsually 10.4+5.7pts this week
Helps him
- +3.0ptspass TDsHis lines put him at 1.50 passing TDs, above his usual 0.75.
- +1.9ptspass yardsHis lines put him at 216.5 passing yards, above his usual 169.8.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptsrush TDsHis lines put him at 0.17 rushing TDs, below his usual 0.25.
- 9th toughestper passEdgeATL allows plenty of QB chances because teams throw a lot against them; per pass they’re tough (0.48 pts, 9th toughest).
- 33%pressureEdgeThe ATL pass rush gets pressure on 33% of dropbacks.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionMurray: 17.4 (best)Mayfield: 16.2
Rush TD pointsof the projectionMurray: 1.1 (best)Mayfield: 1.0
Rush TDs expectedthis weekMurray: 0.18 (best)Mayfield: 0.17
Projected team pointsMurray: 21.3Mayfield: 23.0 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameMurray: 0.0Mayfield: 0.3 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameMurray: 0.2Mayfield: 1.5 (best)
Pass attempts / gameMurray: 25.0Mayfield: 26.8 (best)
Role
Snap shareMurray: 83%Mayfield: 96% (best)
Touch shareMurray: 10% (best)Mayfield: 7%
Touches / gameMurray: 5.0 (best)Mayfield: 3.0
Yards per attemptMurray: 6.5 (best)Mayfield: 6.3
Pass TD rateMurray: 2%Mayfield: 3% (best)
Rush yards / gameMurray: 26.4 (best)Mayfield: 16.5
Points from rushingMurray: 25%Mayfield: 30%
Rushing points / gameMurray: 2.6 pts / gameMayfield: 3.2 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorMurray: 2.2 pts / game (best)Mayfield: 1.7 pts / game
Designed runs / gameMurray: 0.4Mayfield: 0.5 (best)
Scrambles / gameMurray: 3.0 (best)Mayfield: 2.3
Dropbacks / gameMurray: 30.2Mayfield: 32.3 (best)
Designed runs inside the 10 / gameMurray: 0.0Mayfield: 0.3 (best)
Sacks per dropbackMurray: 8% (best)Mayfield: 10%
INT rateMurray: 1.6% (best)Mayfield: 1.9%
Pass aDOTMurray: 6.9Mayfield: 8.2
High value touches / gameMurray: 0.0Mayfield: 0.5 (best)
Goal line carry shareMurray: 0%Mayfield: 20% (best)
Red zone touches / gameMurray: 0.2Mayfield: 1.5 (best)
Rush success rateMurray: 59%Mayfield: 73% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Murray: 5.9% (best)Mayfield: 0%
Range
FloorMurray: 13.6Mayfield: 13.8 (best)
CeilingMurray: 22.6Mayfield: 23.8 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerMurray: 0%Mayfield: 14%
Big weeks (25+ pts)Murray: 0%Mayfield: 0%
Dud weeks (under 12 pts)lower is betterMurray: 50% (best)Mayfield: 54%
SteadinessMurray: Very steady (best)±3.5 pts · 4 gamesMayfield: Very steady±4.8 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionMurray: A+ (best)2026, 6 gmMayfield: C2026, 7 gm
Game scriptMurray: Expected to trailMayfield: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterMurray: 1.0 (best)Mayfield: 1.3
Defense funnelMurray: NeutralMayfield: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedMurray: 32nd (soft) (best)Mayfield: 29th (soft)
Opp sacks / gameMurray: 3.5Mayfield: 2.4 (best)
WeatherMurray: IndoorsMayfield: Outdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain
Roof / surfaceMurray: DometurfMayfield: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleMurray: NormalMayfield: Normal
Opp paceMurray: 4th (fast) (best)Mayfield: 21st (average)
Opp pressure rateMurray: 21% (best)16th (average)Mayfield: 33%3rd (tough)
Pressure facedMurray: 21% (best)Mayfield: 23%
Opp rush yds allowedMurray: 12th (average) (best)Mayfield: 4th (tough)
Opp stuff rateMurray: 16% (best)18th (average)Mayfield: 20%8th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedMurray: 4.3 (best)17th (average)Mayfield: 4.010th (tough)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameMurray: 5.7 (best)31st (soft)Mayfield: 5.029th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedMurray: 71% (best)28th (soft)Mayfield: 69%20th (average)
Form
Last 3 avgMurray: 14.5 (best)Mayfield: 10.0
Last 5 avgMurray: 10.7 (best)Mayfield: 10.4
vs seasonMurray: +3.8 (Rising) (best)Mayfield: −0.4
Yards per carryMurray: 5.3Mayfield: 5.5 (best)
Carries / gameMurray: 5.0 (best)Mayfield: 3.0
Pass volume trendMurray: CoolingMayfield: Steady
Games since injuryMurray: None recentlyMayfield: 1
Crowd
Started in leaguesMurray: 46% (best)Mayfield: 39%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterMurray: QB8 (best)Mayfield: QB14
Yards linepassingMurray: 224.5 (best)Mayfield: 216.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.