Nix
QB · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
16.6pts
market
Brissett
QB · ARI vs NYG
Proj pts
16.1pts
market
Bo Nix or Jacoby Brissett: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Bo Nix. Bench Jacoby Brissett. Bo Nix leads at 16.6. Jacoby Brissett is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Crowd: 47% of managers started Nix, 42% started Brissett.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs QB
- Reliable81% consistency
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is rushing production share: Nix 21%, Brissett 10%.
Latest game on the card: Nix 24.1 (PPR points).
Why Bo Nix
Start Bo Nix — projects 16.6, an even matchup vs SF.
Bo Nix projects 16.6 points on a 13.7–22.5 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SF. Usage: pass attempts / game at 36.0. Net: start Bo Nix this week.
Where Nix leads the head-to-head: Projection (16.6 vs 16.1); Ceiling (22.5 vs 20.2); Pass attempts (36.0 vs 34.6); Boom rate (12% vs 0%); Pass attempts / game (36.0 vs 34.6); Completions / game (22.8 vs 22.5); Rush attempts / game (4.9 vs 2.7); Rush yards / game (20.9 vs 12.0); Rushing production share (21% vs 10%).
Why Jacoby Brissett
Sit Jacoby Brissett — projects 16.1, a favorable matchup vs NYG.
Jacoby Brissett projects 16.1 points on a 14.7–20.2 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYG. Usage: pass attempts / game at 34.6. Net: bench Jacoby Brissett this week.
Working for Brissett: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs QB), Reliable (81% consistency).
Where Brissett leads the head-to-head: Floor (14.7 vs 13.7); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); Implied team total (23.0 vs 22.3); Last 3 avg (16.2 vs 14.6); Last 5 avg (16.1 vs 14.7); vs season (-0.8 vs -1.8); Consistency (81% vs 54%); Bust rate (0% vs 12%); Yards per attempt (6.9 vs 6.4); Touchdown rate (5% vs 4%); Grade vs QB (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); Implied total (23.0 vs 22.3).
Recent form
Bo Nix's last 5 games: PPR points 19.5, 10.5, 5.4, 14.1, 24.1 (oldest to newest).
Jacoby Brissett's last 5 games: PPR points 6.5, 15.6, 16.5, 16.5, 25.6 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Nix has already beaten Brissett's 16.1 projection in 2 of his 5; Brissett has beaten Nix's 16.6 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Bo Nix (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
Jacoby Brissett (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -1.5.
What flips it
Nix's edge is 0.5 points (16.6 to 16.1). Brissett's ceiling (20.2) clears Nix's projection, so a big game from Brissett flips it. Nix's floor (13.7) sits under Brissett's projection, so a quiet game from Nix flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Bo Nix comparisons
- Bo Nix or Jalen Hurts16.6 · 16.6
- Bo Nix or Jared Goff16.6 · 16.5
- Brock Purdy or Bo Nix16.9 · 16.6
- Bo Nix or Jordan Love16.6 · 16.3
This week's toughest calls
- Drake Maye or Dak Prescott17.9 · 17.9
- Drake Maye or Tyler Shough17.9 · 17.9
- Dak Prescott or Tyler Shough17.9 · 17.9
- Kyler Murray or Matthew Stafford16.2 · 16.2
- Daniel Jones or Geno Smith16.2 · 16.2
- Lamar Jackson or Drake Maye17.9 · 17.9
- More QB start/sit calls (quarterbacks this week)