Williams
RB · DAL vs ARI
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points17.1pts
Allen
RB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points12.0ptsUsage estimate
Lean
Bench
Braelon Allen or Javonte Williams: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Javonte Williams over Braelon Allen.
- Ahead by
- +5.1pts
- over Allen
- Confidence
- Moderate
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 98%
- of leagues
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start Braelon Allen instead if you want the easier matchup (the 6th softest defense for running backs, while Williams faces the 12th toughest defense for running backs).
Risk
The risk: Allen ran for 104 yards and caught 6 for 30 last week (19.4 points).
Highlights
WilliamsLeanRB · DAL vs ARIUsually 18.6−1.5pts this week
Helps him
- +1.0ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 77.5 rushing yards, above his usual 67.4.
- 2.4inside the 5He averages 2.4 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- 30.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 30.8 points, a high scoring spot.
- 12.1floorA quiet week still projects to about 12.1 points.
Hurts him
- −1.2ptscatchesHis lines put him at 1.5 catches, below his usual 2.7.
- −1.0ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 1.12 touchdowns, below his usual 1.29.
- ARIvs RBsEdgeARI is the 12th toughest defense for running backs.
AllenFirst outRB · NYJ vs LVUsually 10.9+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- LVvs RBsEdgeLV is the 6th softest defense for running backs.
- +5.9last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 5.9 points above his season average.
Hurts him
- −2.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionWilliams: 17.1 (best)Allen: 12.0
TD pointsof the projectionWilliams: 6.7Allen: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekWilliams: 1.12Allen: Our estimate
Projected team pointsWilliams: 30.8 (best)Allen: 23.5
Goal line carriesper gameWilliams: 2.4 (best)Allen: 0.3
Red zone carriesper gameWilliams: 4.4 (best)Allen: 1.3
Red zone targetsper gameWilliams: 0.4Allen: 0.7 (best)
Role
Snap shareWilliams: 75% (best)Allen: 67%
Usage worthptsWilliams: 17.7 (best)Allen: 11.7
Touch shareWilliams: 38% (best)Allen: 33%
Target shareWilliams: 9%Allen: 10% (best)
Touches / gameWilliams: 18.4 (best)Allen: 15.1
Targets / gameWilliams: 3.1 (best)Allen: 2.9
Air yards shareWilliams: Behind the lineAllen: 0.2%
Vacated touches this weekWilliams: 0.0Allen: 0.0
High value touches / gameWilliams: 5.6 (best)Allen: 2.4
Goal line carry shareWilliams: 94% (best)Allen: 25%
Red zone touches / gameWilliams: 4.9 (best)Allen: 2.0
Rush success rateWilliams: 47% (best)Allen: 42%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Williams: 2.7% (best)Allen: 2.2%
Usage worth vs scoredWilliams: Earned by usage 17.7Scored 18.6Allen: Earned by usage 11.7Scored 10.9
Rush yards / gameWilliams: 67.4 (best)Allen: 59.7
Points from rushingWilliams: 73%Allen: 71%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsWilliams: AboveAllen: Below
WOPRWilliams: 0.12Allen: 0.16 (best)
RZ target shareWilliams: 7%Allen: 22% (best)
Inside 10 target shareWilliams: 0%Allen: 0%
Catch rateWilliams: 86% (best)Allen: 75%
Rushing points / gameWilliams: 13.6 pts / game (best)Allen: 7.7 pts / game
Rushing floorWilliams: 8.1 pts / game (best)Allen: 5.1 pts / game
Range
FloorWilliams: 12.1 (best)Allen: 7.8
CeilingWilliams: 25.3 (best)Allen: 19.6
Points from TDssteadier when lowerWilliams: 41%Allen: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Williams: 27% (best)Allen: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterWilliams: 4% (best)Allen: 29%
SteadinessWilliams: Very steady (best)±7.0 ptsAllen: Steady±6.2 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmWilliams: C-Allen: B+ (best)
Game scriptWilliams: Expected to lead (best)Allen: Expected to lead
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterWilliams: 1.1 (best)Allen: 1.7
Defense funnelWilliams: PassAllen: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedWilliams: 23rd (soft)Allen: 30th (soft) (best)
Backfield roleWilliams: LeadAllen: Lead
Roof / surfaceturfWilliams: Retractable roofAllen: Open
Rest / scheduleWilliams: NormalAllen: Normal
Opp paceWilliams: 2nd (fast) (best)Allen: 9th (fast)
Opp stuff rateWilliams: 16%23rd (soft)Allen: 13% (best)29th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedWilliams: 4.321st (average)Allen: 5.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedWilliams: 21st (average)Allen: 22nd (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameWilliams: 0.1 (best)24th (soft)Allen: 0.01st (tough)
Opp catch rate allowedWilliams: 71%8th (tough)Allen: 93% (best)32nd (soft)
Starting QBWilliams: Prescott (Active)Allen: Smith (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgWilliams: 16.2Allen: 16.8 (best)
Last 5 avgWilliams: 19.7 (best)Allen: 12.8
vs seasonWilliams: −2.4 (Cooling)Allen: +5.9 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryWilliams: 4.3Allen: 4.6 (best)
Carries / gameWilliams: 15.7 (best)Allen: 13.0
Yards per route runWilliams: 0.93 (best)Allen: 0.71
Receiving aDOTWilliams: −1.6Allen: 0.2
Touch share trendWilliams: SteadyAllen: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesWilliams: 99% (best)Allen: 55%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterWilliams: RB5 (best)Allen: RB21
Yards linerushingWilliams: 77.5Allen: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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