New
Week8 · 2026
Starting1
Scoring
New comparison
Toss-up

Brown

RB · CIN vs TEN

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points16.6pts

First out

Swift

RB · CHI @ SEA

Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET

Projected points17.3ptsUsage estimate

Toss-up

Bench

Chase Brown or D'Andre Swift: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Chase Brown gets the nod over D'Andre Swift.

Confidence
Lower
The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Started
89%
of leagues

Swift's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Swift

The case for Swift is more red zone touches (4.3 a game to 2.7) and a safer floor (11.3 to 10.6).

Flips if

Start D'Andre Swift instead if you need a big week: he has more big weeks (30% of his games to 16%).

Risk

The risk: Swift has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET
BrownToss-upRB · CIN vs TENUsually 12.5+4.2pts this week

Helps him

  1. +4.4ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.90 touchdowns, above his usual 0.17.
  2. +1.0ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 57.0 rushing yards, above his usual 47.5.
  3. 29.5team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 29.5 points, a high scoring spot.
  4. TENvs RBsEdgeTEN is the 7th softest defense for running backs.

Hurts him

  1. −1.2ptscatchesHis lines put him at 3.5 catches, below his usual 4.7.
SwiftFirst outRB · CHI @ SEAUsually 17.5−0.3pts this week

Helps him

  1. +2.3ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
  2. 2.0inside the 5He averages 2.0 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
  3. 11.3floorA quiet week still projects to about 11.3 points.
  4. 30%big weeks30% of his games have been big weeks.

Hurts him

  1. −1.6ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
  2. −1.4ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
  3. SEAvs RBsEdgeSEA is the 7th toughest defense for running backs.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Stat
Scoring
ProjectionBrown: 16.6Swift: 17.3 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionBrown: 5.4Swift: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekBrown: 0.90Swift: Our estimate
Projected team pointsBrown: 29.5 (best)Swift: 21.8
Goal line carriesper gameBrown: 0.7Swift: 2.0 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameBrown: 2.2Swift: 4.0 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameBrown: 0.5 (best)Swift: 0.3
Role
Snap shareBrown: 71% (best)Swift: 62%
Usage worthptsBrown: 16.4Swift: 17.8 (best)
Touch shareBrown: 38% (best)Swift: 34%
Target shareBrown: 15% (best)Swift: 11%
Touches / gameBrown: 18.3Swift: 19.7 (best)
Targets / gameBrown: 5.5 (best)Swift: 3.6
Vacated touches this weekBrown: 0.0Swift: 0.0
High value touches / gameBrown: 5.8Swift: 6.0 (best)
Goal line carry shareBrown: 67% (best)Swift: 56%
Red zone touches / gameBrown: 2.7Swift: 4.3 (best)
Rush success rateBrown: 38%Swift: 44% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Brown: 0%Swift: 1.7% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredBrown: Earned by usage 16.4Scored 12.5Swift: Earned by usage 17.8Scored 17.5
Rush yards / gameBrown: 47.5Swift: 68.0 (best)
Points from rushingBrown: 46%Swift: 73%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsBrown: BelowSwift: 2 RZ targets
WOPRBrown: 0.21 (best)Swift: 0.15
RZ target shareBrown: 10% (best)Swift: 6%
Inside 10 target shareBrown: 12% (best)Swift: 7%
Catch rateBrown: 85%Swift: 88% (best)
Rushing points / gameBrown: 5.8 pts / gameSwift: 12.8 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorBrown: 5.2 pts / gameSwift: 8.1 pts / game (best)
Range
FloorBrown: 10.6Swift: 11.3 (best)
CeilingBrown: 22.5Swift: 25.5 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerBrown: 8%Swift: 34%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Brown: 16%Swift: 30% (best)
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterBrown: 10% (best)Swift: 17%
SteadinessBrown: Very steady (best)±7.0 ptsSwift: Steady±8.1 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmBrown: B+ (best)Swift: D+
Game scriptBrown: Expected to lead (best)Swift: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterBrown: 1.0 (best)Swift: 1.7
Defense funnelBrown: NeutralSwift: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedBrown: 26th (soft) (best)Swift: 6th (tough)
Backfield roleBrown: LeadSwift: Lead
Roof / surfaceturfBrown: OpenSwift: Open
Rest / scheduleBrown: NormalSwift: 11 days rest
Opp paceBrown: 32nd (slow)Swift: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateBrown: 19% (best)13th (average)Swift: 22%4th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedBrown: 4.1 (best)12th (average)Swift: 3.42nd (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedBrown: 23rd (soft) (best)Swift: 1st (tough)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameBrown: 0.1 (best)24th (soft)Swift: 0.01st (tough)
Opp catch rate allowedBrown: 80%18th (average)Swift: 86% (best)28th (soft)
Starting QBBrown: Burrow (Active)Swift: Williams (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgBrown: 12.0Swift: 19.8 (best)
Last 5 avgBrown: 11.2Swift: 15.5 (best)
vs seasonBrown: −0.5 (Steady)Swift: +2.2 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryBrown: 3.5Swift: 4.1 (best)
Carries / gameBrown: 13.7Swift: 16.6 (best)
Yards per route runBrown: 1.15Swift: 1.49 (best)
Receiving aDOTBrown: −0.8Swift: −1.4
Touch share trendBrown: SteadySwift: Rising
Crowd
Started in leaguesBrown: 90%Swift: 91% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterBrown: RB8Swift: RB4 (best)
Yards linerushingBrown: 57.0Swift: Our estimate

Deciding on someone else?

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