Douglas
WR · NE vs BUF
Proj pts
8.8pts
market
Godwin
WR · TB vs GB
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Chris Godwin Jr. or DeMario Douglas: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean DeMario Douglas over Chris Godwin Jr by 0.4. DeMario Douglas leads at 8.8. Chris Godwin Jr. is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Availability & news
Chris Godwin Jr.
Godwin (ankle) was a full practice participant Thursday, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share10% target share
- Thin volume2.9 targets/g
Cons
- Low team total18.0 team total
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is snap share: Douglas 26%, Godwin 71%.
Godwin: “Godwin (ankle) was a full practice participant Thursday, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Godwin 5.5 (PPR points).
Why DeMario Douglas
Start DeMario Douglas — projects 8.8, a tough matchup vs BUF, with a rising role.
DeMario Douglas projects 8.8 points on a 4.8–10.4 range. The matchup grades as tough against BUF. Usage: targets / game at 2.9. Net: start DeMario Douglas this week.
Working against Douglas: Low target share (10% target share), Thin volume (2.9 targets/g).
Where Douglas leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.8 vs 8.4); Implied team total (20.8 vs 18.0); vs season (+0.8 vs +0.2); Consistency (32% vs 31%).
Why Chris Godwin Jr.
Sit Chris Godwin Jr. — projects 8.4, an even matchup vs GB, but the role is cooling.
Chris Godwin Jr. projects 8.4 points on a 7.2–12.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 5.7. Net: bench Chris Godwin Jr. this week.
Working against Godwin: Low team total (18.0 team total).
Where Godwin leads the head-to-head: Floor (7.2 vs 4.8); Ceiling (12.9 vs 10.4); Target share (18% vs 10%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C+ vs D); Last 3 avg (7.5 vs 4.6); Last 5 avg (9.6 vs 4.7); Boom rate (22% vs 12%); Bust rate (22% vs 25%); Targets / game (5.7 vs 2.9); Snap share (71% vs 26%); Red zone targets (8 vs 7).
Recent form
DeMario Douglas's last 4 games: PPR points 1.9, 4.8, 4.9, 7 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Chris Godwin Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 23.8, 1.8, 8.3, 8.8, 5.5 (oldest to newest).
Douglas has already beaten Godwin's 8.4 projection in 0 of his 4; Godwin has beaten Douglas's 8.8 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
DeMario Douglas (NE) faces BUF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.8, spread +7.0.
Chris Godwin Jr. (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Douglas's edge is 0.4 points (8.8 to 8.4). Godwin's ceiling (12.9) clears Douglas's projection, so a big game from Godwin flips it. Douglas's floor (4.8) sits under Godwin's projection, so a quiet game from Douglas flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Mike Evans or Quentin Johnston9.7 · 9.7
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.2 · 15.2
- DJ Moore or DK Metcalf12.5 · 12.5
- Tee Higgins or Zay Flowers16.5 · 16.5
- Christian Watson or George Pickens16.8 · 16.8
- Justin Jefferson or KC Concepcion11.1 · 11.1
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)