Lloyd
RB · GB vs TB
Proj pts
7.1pts
market
Rodriguez
RB · JAX vs CIN
Proj pts
6.7pts
market
Chris Rodriguez Jr. or MarShawn Lloyd: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean MarShawn Lloyd over Chris Rodriguez Jr by 0.4. MarShawn Lloyd leads at 7.1. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Positive game scriptFavored
- Reliable100% consistency
Cons
- Committee back1% of touches
- Shaky floor3.6 floor
Pros
- Goal-line back1.2 GL carries/g
- Run-funnel matchupRun-funnel vs RB
Cons
- Committee back15% of touches
- Shaky floor4.3 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2024 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touch share: Lloyd 1%, Rodriguez 15%.
Latest game on the card: Lloyd 3.8, Rodriguez 9.7 (PPR points).
Why MarShawn Lloyd
Start MarShawn Lloyd — projects 7.1, an even matchup vs TB.
MarShawn Lloyd projects 7.1 points on a 3.6–9.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 6.0. Net: start MarShawn Lloyd this week.
Working for Lloyd: Positive game script (Favored), Reliable (100% consistency).
Working against Lloyd: Committee back (1% of touches), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).
Where Lloyd leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.1 vs 6.7); Last 3 avg (5.4 vs 4.4); vs season (+0.0 vs -1.1); Consistency (100% vs 49%); Bust rate (0% vs 10%); Target share (8% vs 1%).
Why Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Sit Chris Rodriguez Jr. — projects 6.7, a run-funnel matchup vs CIN, but the role is cooling.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. projects 6.7 points on a 4.3–14.0 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against CIN. Usage: carries / game at 9.3. Net: bench Chris Rodriguez Jr. this week.
Working for Rodriguez: Goal-line back (1.2 GL carries/g), Run-funnel matchup (Run-funnel vs RB).
Working against Rodriguez: Committee back (15% of touches), Shaky floor (4.3 floor).
Where Rodriguez leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.3 vs 3.6); Ceiling (14.0 vs 9.8); Touch share (15% vs 1%); Opportunity score (6.4 vs 5.3); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs B-); Implied team total (24.5 vs 21.5); Last 5 avg (7.2 vs 4.7); Boom rate (20% vs 0%); Carries / game (9.3 vs 6.0); Touches / game (9.6 vs 7.0); Yards per carry (4.5 vs 2.5); Snap share (34% vs 14%); Goal line carries (14 vs 0); Red zone carries (33 vs 0).
Recent form
MarShawn Lloyd's last 4 games: PPR points 2.8, 3.7, 8.6, 3.8 (oldest to newest).
Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s last 4 games: PPR points 15.3, 2.3, 1.3, 9.7 (oldest to newest).
Lloyd has already beaten Rodriguez's 6.7 projection in 1 of his 4; Rodriguez has beaten Lloyd's 7.1 in 2 of his 4.
Matchup
MarShawn Lloyd (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAX) faces CIN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Lloyd's edge is 0.4 points (7.1 to 6.7). Rodriguez's ceiling (14) clears Lloyd's projection, so a big game from Rodriguez flips it. Lloyd's floor (3.6) sits under Rodriguez's projection, so a quiet game from Lloyd flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Omarion Hampton or Tony Pollard12.1 · 12.1
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.8 · 17.8
- Emanuel Wilson or Jadarian Price9.8 · 9.7
- Bhayshul Tuten or David Montgomery17.0 · 17.1
- Ashton Jeanty or Jeremiyah Love22.6 · 22.4
- Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor28.2 · 28.4
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)