Bellinger
TE · TEN @ CIN
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points3.0pts
Adkins
TE · DEN vs KC
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points3.0ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Daniel Bellinger or Nate Adkins: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Need a safe week? Daniel Bellinger. Swinging for a big week? Nate Adkins.
- Ahead by
- Level
- with Adkins
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Adkins's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Adkins
Bellinger has the safer floor (1.8 to 0.8); Adkins has more upside (a ceiling of 6.2 to 4.7).
Flips if
Start Nate Adkins instead if you want fewer dud weeks (67% of his games to 100%).
Risk
Bellinger has the safer floor (1.8 to 0.8); Adkins has more upside (a ceiling of 6.2 to 4.7).
Highlights
BellingerToss-upTE · TEN @ CINUsually 1.3+1.6pts this week
Helps him
- +1.6pts3 linesCatches 1.5 (usual 0.9), receiving yards 9.5 (usual 4.9) and touchdowns 0.09 (usual 0.00) all sit above his usual.
Hurts him
- 7games in a rowHe has been held under 6 points in 7 straight games.
AdkinsFirst outTE · DEN vs KCUsually 2.9+0.0pts this week
Helps him
- KCvs TEsEdgeHe faces the Chiefs, the 3rd softest defense for tight ends.
Hurts him
- 2%targetsHe draws only 2% of his team’s targets.
- 0.7per gameHe sees only 0.7 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionBellinger: 3.0Adkins: 3.0
TD pointsof the projectionBellinger: 0.5Adkins: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekBellinger: 0.09Adkins: Our estimate
Projected team pointsBellinger: 17.0Adkins: 19.8 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameBellinger: 0.1Adkins: 0.4 (best)
Role
Snap shareBellinger: 44% (best)Adkins: 32%
Usage worthptsBellinger: 2.5 (best)Adkins: 1.6
Target shareBellinger: 6% (best)Adkins: 2%
Targets / gameBellinger: 1.6 (best)Adkins: 0.7
Air yards shareBellinger: 3% (best)Adkins: 2%
Vacated targets this weekBellinger: 7.3 (best)Adkins: 3.0
RZ target shareBellinger: 4%Adkins: 12% (best)
Inside 10 target shareBellinger: 0%Adkins: 25% (best)
Catch rateBellinger: 55%Adkins: 80% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredBellinger: Earned by usage 2.5Scored 1.3Adkins: Earned by usage 1.6Scored 2.9
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsBellinger: 1 RZ targetAdkins: Above
WOPRBellinger: 0.10 (best)Adkins: 0.05
Range
FloorBellinger: 1.8 (best)Adkins: 0.8
CeilingBellinger: 4.7Adkins: 6.2 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerBellinger: 0%Adkins: 58%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Bellinger: 0%Adkins: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterBellinger: 100%Adkins: 67% (best)
SteadinessBellinger: Volatile (best)±1.2 pts · 7 gamesAdkins: Volatile±5.5 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmBellinger: A-Adkins: A (best)
Game scriptBellinger: Expected to trailAdkins: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterBellinger: 1.5 (best)Adkins: 1.7
Defense funnelBellinger: NeutralAdkins: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedBellinger: 26th (soft) (best)Adkins: 12th (average)
Starting QBBellinger: Ward (Active)Adkins: Nix (Active)
Roof / surfaceBellinger: OpenturfAdkins: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleBellinger: NormalAdkins: Normal
Opp paceBellinger: 20th (average) (best)Adkins: 24th (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameBellinger: 0.723rd (soft)Adkins: 0.8 (best)29th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedBellinger: 76% (best)24th (soft)Adkins: 70%11th (average)
Form
Last 3 avgBellinger: 1.0 (best)Adkins: 0.0
Last 5 avgBellinger: 1.5Adkins: 1.6 (best)
vs seasonBellinger: −0.4 (Cooling) (best)Adkins: −2.9 (Cooling)
Yards per route runBellinger: 0.67Adkins: 1.25 (best)
Receiving aDOTBellinger: 3.7Adkins: 6.0
Target share trendBellinger: SteadyAdkins: No usage yet
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterBellinger: TE46 (best)Adkins: TE47
Yards linereceivingBellinger: 9.5Adkins: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.