Sample
TE · CIN vs TEN
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points3.3pts
Allen
TE · LA vs LAC
Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET
Projected points3.8ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Davis Allen or Drew Sample: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Drew Sample gets the nod over Davis Allen.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Allen
The case for Allen is more big weeks (14% of his games to 0%) and a faster paced opponent.
Flips if
Start Davis Allen instead if you need a big week: he has more big weeks (14% of his games to 0%).
Risk
The risk: Sample faces the Titans, the 6th toughest defense for tight ends.
Highlights
SampleToss-upTE · CIN vs TENUsually 3.0+0.3pts this week
Helps him
- 29.5team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 29.5 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- 4%targetsHe draws only 4% of his team’s targets.
- 1.3per gameHe sees only 1.3 targets a game.
AllenFirst outTE · LA vs LACUsually 4.3−0.5pts this week
Helps him
- 18.0last weekHe caught 4 for 20 yards and two touchdowns last week (18.0 points).
Hurts him
- −0.8ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
- 5%targetsHe draws only 5% of his team’s targets.
- 2.0per gameHe sees only 2.0 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionSample: 3.3Allen: 3.8 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionSample: 1.0Allen: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekSample: 0.16Allen: Our estimate
Projected team pointsSample: 29.5 (best)Allen: 25.8
Red zone targetsper gameSample: 0.3Allen: 0.6 (best)
Role
Snap shareSample: 52% (best)Allen: 46%
Usage worthptsSample: 2.3Allen: 3.7 (best)
Target shareSample: 4%Allen: 5% (best)
Targets / gameSample: 1.3Allen: 2.0 (best)
Air yards shareSample: 0.4%Allen: 4% (best)
Vacated targets this weekSample: 6.8Allen: 12.2 (best)
RZ target shareSample: 6%Allen: 11% (best)
Inside 10 target shareSample: 0%Allen: 18% (best)
Catch rateSample: 88% (best)Allen: 71%
SeparationSample: Not trackedAllen: 3.3 yds
YAC over expectedSample: Not trackedAllen: +0.2
Usage worth vs scoredSample: Earned by usage 2.3Scored 3.0Allen: Earned by usage 3.7Scored 4.3
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsSample: 2 RZ targetsAllen: Above
WOPRSample: 0.07Allen: 0.11 (best)
Range
FloorSample: 1.2Allen: 1.6 (best)
CeilingSample: 6.2 (best)Allen: 5.8
Points from TDssteadier when lowerSample: 34%Allen: 40%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Sample: 0%Allen: 14% (best)
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterSample: 83% (best)Allen: 86%
SteadinessSample: Volatile (best)±4.1 pts · 6 gamesAllen: Volatile±6.3 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionSample: D+ (best)2026, 7 gmAllen: D-2026, 6 gm
Game scriptSample: Expected to lead (best)Allen: Expected to lead
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterSample: 1.0 (best)Allen: 1.7
Defense funnelSample: NeutralAllen: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedSample: 23rd (soft) (best)Allen: 7th (tough)
Starting QBSample: Burrow (Active)Allen: Stafford (Active)
Roof / surfaceturfSample: OpenAllen: Dome
Rest / scheduleSample: NormalAllen: Normal
Opp paceSample: 32nd (slow)Allen: 15th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameSample: 0.6 (best)18th (average)Allen: 0.514th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedSample: 67%5th (tough)Allen: 74% (best)21st (average)
Form
Last 3 avgSample: 4.0Allen: 7.5 (best)
Last 5 avgSample: 2.6Allen: 5.3 (best)
vs seasonSample: +1.0 (Rising)Allen: +3.1 (Rising) (best)
Yards per route runSample: 0.74Allen: 1.28 (best)
Receiving aDOTSample: 0.9Allen: 5.9
Target share trendSample: RisingAllen: Steady
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterSample: TE42Allen: TE38 (best)
Yards linereceivingSample: 8.5Allen: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.