New

Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

New comparison

Toss-up

Gray

TE · KC @ DEN

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points3.6pts

First out

Allen

TE · LA vs LAC

Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET

Projected points3.8ptsUsage estimate

Toss-up

Bench

Davis Allen or Noah Gray: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Noah Gray gets the nod over Davis Allen.

Confidence: Lower; The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate

Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Allen

The case for Allen is an offense expected to score more (25.8 points to 20.8) and more big weeks (14% of his games to 0%).

Flips if

Start Davis Allen instead if you need a big week: he has more big weeks (14% of his games to 0%).

Risk

The risk: Allen caught 4 for 20 yards and two touchdowns last week (18.0 points).

Highlights

Injuries as of Sat 2:00 AM ET

GrayToss-upTE · KC @ DENUsually 4.6−1.1pts this week

Helps him

+0.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.12 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.

Hurts him

−1.3ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 13.5 receiving yards, below his usual 26.3.
−0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 1.5 catches, below his usual 2.0.
8%targetsHe draws only 8% of his team’s targets.
2.3per gameHe sees only 2.3 targets a game.

AllenFirst outTE · LA vs LACUsually 4.3−0.5pts this week

Helps him

18.0last weekHe caught 4 for 20 yards and two touchdowns last week (18.0 points).

Hurts him

−0.8ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
5%targetsHe draws only 5% of his team’s targets.
2.0per gameHe sees only 2.0 targets a game.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection3.63.8

TD pointsof the projection0.7Our estimate

Expected TDsthis week0.12Our estimate

Projected team points20.825.8

Red zone targetsper game0.30.6

Role

Snap share59%46%

Usage worthpts4.03.7

Target share8%5%

Targets / game2.32.0

Air yards share9%4%

Vacated targets this week3.812.2

RZ target share8%11%

Inside 10 target share9%18%

Catch rate86%71%

SeparationNot tracked3.3 yds

YAC over expectedNot tracked+0.2

Usage worth vs scoredEarned by usage 4.0Scored 4.6Earned by usage 3.7Scored 4.3

Receiving TDs vs RZ targets2 RZ targetsAbove

WOPR0.200.11

Range

Floor1.91.6

Ceiling6.05.8

Points from TDssteadier when lower0%40%

Big weeks (15+ pts)0%14%

Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is better50%86%

SteadinessUp & down±3.4 pts · 6 gamesVolatile±6.3 pts · 7 games

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his positionC+2026, 7 gmD-2026, 6 gm

Game scriptExpected to leadExpected to lead

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.41.7

Defense funnelNeutralNeutral

Opp pass yds allowed17th (average)7th (tough)

Starting QBMahomes (Active)Stafford (Active)

Opp defender outElliss (LB)None listed

Roof / surfaceOpengrassDometurf

Rest / scheduleNormalNormal

Opp pace30th (slow)15th (average)

Opp deep targets allowed / game0.411th (average)0.514th (average)

Opp catch rate allowed72%13th (average)74%21st (average)

Form

Last 3 avg6.57.5

Last 5 avg5.35.3

vs season+1.8 (Rising)+3.1 (Rising)

Yards per route run2.141.28

Receiving aDOT6.95.9

Target share trendCoolingSteady

Crowd

Nuvela position ranklower is betterTE39TE38

Yards linereceiving13.5Our estimate

Deciding on someone else?

Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.

Sit or start?