Flournoy
WR · DAL vs HOU
Proj pts
10.7pts
market
Boston
WR · CLE vs PIT
Proj pts
10.1pts
market
Denzel Boston or Ryan Flournoy: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Ryan Flournoy. Bench Denzel Boston. Ryan Flournoy leads at 10.7. Denzel Boston is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Crowd: started Boston 53%
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.7 targets/g
Pros
- Every-down role91% of snaps
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR
Cons
- Thin volume5.0 targets/g
- Low team total18.0 team total
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Ryan Flournoy
Start Ryan Flournoy — projects 10.7, a tough matchup vs HOU, but the role is cooling.
Ryan Flournoy projects 10.7 points on a 5.1–12.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against HOU. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: Ryan Flournoy is start this week.
Working against Flournoy: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.7 targets/g).
Where Flournoy leads the head-to-head: Projection (10.7 vs 10.1); Implied team total (23.0 vs 18.0); Boom rate (15% vs 0%); Red zone targets (7 vs 4); Implied total (23.0 vs 18.0).
Why Denzel Boston
Sit Denzel Boston — projects 10.1, a favorable matchup vs PIT.
Denzel Boston projects 10.1 points. The matchup grades as favorable against PIT. Usage: targets / game at 5.0. Net: Denzel Boston is a bench this week.
Working for Boston: Every-down role (91% of snaps), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).
Working against Boston: Thin volume (5.0 targets/g), Low team total (18.0 team total).
Where Boston leads the head-to-head: Target share (18% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs D-); Last 3 avg (14.2 vs 5.2); Last 5 avg (14.2 vs 7.1); vs season (+0.0 vs -1.8); Consistency (64% vs 16%); Bust rate (0% vs 31%); Targets / game (5.0 vs 3.7); Snap share (91% vs 48%); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (B+ vs D-).
Recent form
Ryan Flournoy's last 4 games: PPR points 12.8, 4.2, 7.3, 4.2 (oldest to newest).
Denzel Boston's last 3 games: PPR points 8.1, 13.9, 20.5 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Flournoy has already beaten Boston's 10.1 projection in 1 of his 4; Boston has beaten Flournoy's 10.7 in 2 of his 3.
Matchup
Ryan Flournoy (DAL) faces HOU, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread +2.5.
Denzel Boston (CLE) faces PIT, kickoff Thu 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +2.5.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.