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Scoring
#1 Start

Collins

WR · HOU vs DAL

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

18.9pts

market

Mod Conf
Bench

Smith

WR · PHI vs LA

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

17.4pts

market

Mod Conf

DeVonta Smith or Nico Collins: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Nico Collins. Bench DeVonta Smith. Nico Collins leads at 18.9. DeVonta Smith is the first one out, 1.4 short.

Crowd: 64% of managers started Collins, 95% started Smith.

Availability & news

  • Nico CollinsPractice: Limited

    Collins (hamstring) remained limited at Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

  • DeVonta SmithPractice: DNP

    Smith (hamstring) isn't expected to be available Sunday versus the Rams, Tim McManus of ESPN.com reports.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Nico CollinsStart
WR · HOU vs DAL

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR
  • High floor13.1 floor
DeVonta SmithBench
WR · PHI vs LA

Pros

  • Spike upside23.6 ceiling
  • Heating up16.2 last 3

Cons

  • Low team total19.5 team total

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

CollinsStart
SmithBench
Projection18.917.4
Floor13.17.9
Ceiling23.223.6
Target share24%25%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)A+B
Implied team total25.819.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Collins 13%, Smith 25%.

Collins (Practice: Limited): “Collins (hamstring) remained limited at Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Smith (Practice: DNP): “Smith (hamstring) isn't expected to be available Sunday versus the Rams, Tim McManus of ESPN.com reports.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Collins 21.2, Smith 12.5 (PPR points).

Why Nico Collins

Start Nico Collins — projects 18.9, a favorable matchup vs DAL.

Nico Collins projects 18.9 points on a 13.1–23.2 range. The matchup grades as favorable against DAL. Usage: targets / game at 8.0. Net: start Nico Collins this week.

Working for Collins: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR), High floor (13.1 floor).

Where Collins leads the head-to-head: Projection (18.9 vs 17.4); Floor (13.1 vs 7.9); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs B); Implied team total (25.8 vs 19.5); Last 5 avg (15.9 vs 12.2); Consistency (58% vs 36%); Bust rate (13% vs 25%); Targets / game (8.0 vs 6.6); Red zone targets (19 vs 13).

Why DeVonta Smith

Sit DeVonta Smith — projects 17.4, an even matchup vs LA, with a rising role.

DeVonta Smith projects 17.4 points on a 7.9–23.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 6.6. Net: bench DeVonta Smith this week.

Working for Smith: Spike upside (23.6 ceiling), Heating up (16.2 last 3).

Working against Smith: Low team total (19.5 team total).

Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (23.6 vs 23.2); Target share (25% vs 24%); Last 3 avg (16.2 vs 13.3); vs season (+0.5 vs -1.2); Boom rate (19% vs 13%); Snap share (84% vs 77%).

Recent form

Nico Collins's last 5 games: PPR points 16.1, 23.5, 9.9, 8.7, 21.2 (oldest to newest).

DeVonta Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 4.5, 8.2, 8.3, 27.7, 12.5 (oldest to newest).

Collins has already beaten Smith's 17.4 projection in 2 of his 5; Smith has beaten Collins's 18.9 in 1 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Nico Collins (HOU) faces DAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 25.8, spread -3.0.

DeVonta Smith (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 19.5, spread +3.5.

What flips it

Collins's edge is 1.5 points (18.9 to 17.4). Smith's ceiling (23.6) clears Collins's projection, so a big game from Smith flips it. Collins's floor (13.1) sits under Smith's projection, so a quiet game from Collins flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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More Nico Collins comparisons

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