nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Smith

WR · PHI vs LA

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

17.4pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

McMillan

WR · CAR vs DET

Sun 8:20 PM

Proj pts

17.4pts

market

Lower Conf

DeVonta Smith or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean DeVonta Smith over Tetairoa McMillan; the two are level at 17.4. DeVonta Smith leads at 17.4. Tetairoa McMillan is the first one out, 0.1 short.

Crowd: 95% of managers started Smith, 88% started McMillan.

Availability & news

  • DeVonta SmithPractice: DNP

    Smith (hamstring) isn't expected to be available Sunday versus the Rams, Tim McManus of ESPN.com reports.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

DeVonta SmithStart
WR · PHI vs LA

Pros

  • Spike upside23.6 ceiling
  • Heating up16.2 last 3

Cons

  • Low team total19.5 team total
Tetairoa McMillanBench
WR · CAR vs DET

Pros

  • Alpha target share26% target share
  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs WR

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

SmithStart
McMillanBench
Projection17.417.4
Floor7.98.7
Ceiling23.617.8
Target share25%26%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)BA
Implied team total19.523.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Smith 16.2, McMillan 9.8.

Smith (Practice: DNP): “Smith (hamstring) isn't expected to be available Sunday versus the Rams, Tim McManus of ESPN.com reports.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Smith 12.5, McMillan 3.7 (PPR points).

Why DeVonta Smith

Start DeVonta Smith — projects 17.4, an even matchup vs LA, with a rising role.

DeVonta Smith projects 17.4 points on a 7.9–23.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 6.6. Net: start DeVonta Smith this week.

Working for Smith: Spike upside (23.6 ceiling), Heating up (16.2 last 3).

Working against Smith: Low team total (19.5 team total).

Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (23.6 vs 17.8); Last 3 avg (16.2 vs 9.8); Last 5 avg (12.2 vs 8.9); vs season (+0.5 vs -3.6); Boom rate (19% vs 12%).

Why Tetairoa McMillan

Sit Tetairoa McMillan — projects 17.4, a favorable matchup vs DET.

Tetairoa McMillan projects 17.4 points on a 8.7–17.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against DET. Usage: targets / game at 7.2. Net: bench Tetairoa McMillan this week.

Working for McMillan: Alpha target share (26% target share), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs WR).

Where McMillan leads the head-to-head: Floor (8.7 vs 7.9); Target share (26% vs 25%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs B); Implied team total (23.5 vs 19.5); Consistency (47% vs 36%); Bust rate (18% vs 25%); Targets / game (7.2 vs 6.6); Snap share (87% vs 84%); Red zone targets (15 vs 13).

Recent form

DeVonta Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 4.5, 8.2, 8.3, 27.7, 12.5 (oldest to newest).

Tetairoa McMillan's last 5 games: PPR points 2.5, 12.5, 10.5, 15.1, 3.7 (oldest to newest).

Smith has already beaten McMillan's 17.4 projection in 1 of his 5; McMillan has beaten Smith's 17.4 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

DeVonta Smith (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 19.5, spread +3.5.

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.

What flips it

Smith and McMillan are level on projection (17.4). McMillan's ceiling (17.8) clears Smith's projection, so a big game from McMillan flips it. Smith's floor (7.9) sits under McMillan's projection, so a quiet game from Smith flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More DeVonta Smith comparisons

More Tetairoa McMillan comparisons

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