Wicks
WR · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
11.5pts
market
Tucker
WR · LV vs KC
Proj pts
11.4pts
market
Dontayvion Wicks or Tre Tucker: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Dontayvion Wicks. Bench Tre Tucker. Dontayvion Wicks leads at 11.5. Tre Tucker is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Crowd: started Wicks 33% · Tucker 31%
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share13% target share
- Thin volume3.5 targets/g
Pros
- Every-down role95% of snaps
Cons
- Shaky floor4.9 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Dontayvion Wicks
Start Dontayvion Wicks — projects 11.5, an even matchup vs LA, with a rising role.
Dontayvion Wicks projects 11.5 points on a 3.4–15.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 3.5. Net: Dontayvion Wicks is start this week.
Working against Wicks: Low target share (13% target share), Thin volume (3.5 targets/g).
Where Wicks leads the head-to-head: Projection (11.5 vs 11.4); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs C-); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (B vs C-).
Why Tre Tucker
Sit Tre Tucker — projects 11.4, an even matchup vs KC, with a rising role.
Tre Tucker projects 11.4 points on a 4.9–16.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against KC. Usage: targets / game at 5.4. Net: Tre Tucker is a bench this week.
Working for Tucker: Every-down role (95% of snaps).
Working against Tucker: Shaky floor (4.9 floor).
Where Tucker leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.9 vs 3.4); Ceiling (16.2 vs 15.2); Target share (19% vs 13%); Implied team total (21.5 vs 20.3); Last 3 avg (12.0 vs 11.0); Last 5 avg (10.4 vs 8.7); vs season (+2.7 vs +0.3); Consistency (10% vs 0%); Boom rate (12% vs 8%); Bust rate (18% vs 25%); Targets / game (5.4 vs 3.5); Snap share (95% vs 47%); Red zone targets (10 vs 4); Implied total (21.5 vs 20.3).
Recent form
Dontayvion Wicks's last 4 games: PPR points 1.7, 15.3, 12.4, 5.2 (oldest to newest).
Tre Tucker's last 5 games: PPR points 10.9, 5.4, 4.7, 22.9, 8.3 (oldest to newest).
Wicks has already beaten Tucker's 11.4 projection in 2 of his 4; Tucker has beaten Wicks's 11.5 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Dontayvion Wicks (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.3, spread +3.0.
Tre Tucker (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
What flips it
Wicks's edge is 0.1 points (11.5 to 11.4). Tucker's ceiling (16.2) clears Wicks's projection, so a big game from Tucker flips it. Wicks's floor (3.4) sits under Tucker's projection, so a quiet game from Wicks flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.