Sample
TE · CIN vs TEN
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points3.3pts
Hibner
TE · BAL @ BUF
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETNo game status yet, practice Full
Projected points3.4ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Drew Sample or Matthew Hibner: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Need a safe week? Drew Sample. Swinging for a big week? Matthew Hibner.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Hibner's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Hibner
Sample has the safer floor (1.2 to 1.0); Hibner has more upside (a ceiling of 6.5 to 6.2).
Flips if
Start Matthew Hibner instead if you want fewer dud weeks (67% of his games to 83%).
Risk
Matthew Hibner has played 1 game since missing time.
Highlights
SampleToss-upTE · CIN vs TENUsually 3.0+0.3pts this week
Helps him
- 29.5team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 29.5 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- 4%targetsHe draws only 4% of his team’s targets.
- 1.3per gameHe sees only 1.3 targets a game.
HibnerFirst outTE · BAL @ BUFUsually 3.0+0.4pts this week
Helps him
- 1sthighest totalEdgeHe plays in the highest scoring game on the slate.
Hurts him
- 4%targetsHe draws only 4% of his team’s targets.
- 0.8per gameHe sees only 0.8 targets a game.
EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionSample: 3.3Hibner: 3.4 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionSample: 1.0Hibner: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekSample: 0.16Hibner: Our estimate
Projected team pointsSample: 29.5 (best)Hibner: 25.8
Red zone targetsper gameSample: 0.3 (best)Hibner: 0.2
Role
Snap shareSample: 52% (best)Hibner: 42%
Usage worthptsSample: 2.3 (best)Hibner: 1.5
Target shareSample: 4%Hibner: 4%
Targets / gameSample: 1.3 (best)Hibner: 0.8
Air yards shareSample: 0.4%Hibner: 2% (best)
Vacated targets this weekSample: 6.8 (best)Hibner: 0.7
RZ target shareSample: 6% (best)Hibner: 4%
Inside 10 target shareSample: 0%Hibner: 9% (best)
Catch rateSample: 88%Hibner: 100% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredScored 3.0Sample: Earned by usage 2.3Hibner: Earned by usage 1.5
WOPRSample: 0.07Hibner: 0.07
Range
FloorSample: 1.2 (best)Hibner: 1.0
CeilingSample: 6.2Hibner: 6.5 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerSample: 34%Hibner: 33%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Sample: 0%Hibner: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterSample: 83%Hibner: 67% (best)
SteadinessSample: Volatile (best)±4.1 pts · 6 gamesHibner: Volatile±4.2 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionSample: D+2026, 7 gmHibner: D+2026, 6 gm
Game scriptSample: Expected to lead (best)Hibner: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterSample: 1.0Hibner: 1.0
Defense funnelSample: NeutralHibner: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedSample: 23rd (soft)Hibner: 31st (soft) (best)
Starting QBSample: Burrow (Active)Hibner: Huntley (Active)
Roof / surfaceturfSample: OpenHibner: Open
Rest / scheduleSample: NormalHibner: Normal
Opp paceSample: 32nd (slow)Hibner: 24th (slow) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameSample: 0.618th (average)Hibner: 0.7 (best)23rd (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedSample: 67%5th (tough)Hibner: 68% (best)8th (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgSample: 4.0 (best)Hibner: 1.8
Last 5 avgSample: 2.6Hibner: 3.1 (best)
vs seasonSample: +1.0 (Rising) (best)Hibner: −1.2 (Cooling)
Yards per route runSample: 0.74Hibner: 1.79 (best)
Receiving aDOTSample: 0.9Hibner: 5.0
Target share trendSample: RisingHibner: Steady
Games since injurySample: None recentlyHibner: 1
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterSample: TE42Hibner: TE40 (best)
Yards linereceivingSample: 8.5Hibner: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.