Adkins
TE · DEN vs KC
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points3.0ptsUsage estimate
Sample
TE · CIN vs TEN
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points3.2pts
Toss-up
Bench
Drew Sample or Nate Adkins: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Nate Adkins gets the nod over Drew Sample.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Adkins's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Sample
The case for Sample is an offense expected to score more (29.5 points to 19.8) and more of the snaps (52% to 32%).
Flips if
Start Drew Sample instead if you want more of the snaps (52% to 32%).
Risk
The risk: Sample caught 2 for 24 yards and a touchdown last week (10.4 points).
Highlights
AdkinsToss-upTE · DEN vs KCUsually 2.9+0.0pts this week
Helps him
- KCvs TEsEdgeKC is the 3rd softest defense for tight ends.
Hurts him
- 2%targetsHe draws only 2% of his team’s targets.
- 0.7per gameHe sees only 0.7 targets a game.
SampleFirst outTE · CIN vs TENUsually 3.0+0.2pts this week
Helps him
- 29.5team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 29.5 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- 4%targetsHe draws only 4% of his team’s targets.
- 1.3per gameHe sees only 1.3 targets a game.
EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionAdkins: 3.0Sample: 3.2 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionAdkins: Our estimateSample: 1.0
Expected TDsthis weekAdkins: Our estimateSample: 0.16
Projected team pointsAdkins: 19.8Sample: 29.5 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameAdkins: 0.4 (best)Sample: 0.3
Role
Snap shareAdkins: 32%Sample: 52% (best)
Usage worthptsAdkins: 1.6Sample: 2.3 (best)
Target shareAdkins: 2%Sample: 4% (best)
Targets / gameAdkins: 0.7Sample: 1.3 (best)
Air yards shareAdkins: 2% (best)Sample: 0.4%
Vacated targets this weekAdkins: 3.0Sample: 6.8 (best)
RZ target shareAdkins: 12% (best)Sample: 6%
Inside 10 target shareAdkins: 25% (best)Sample: 0%
Catch rateAdkins: 80%Sample: 88% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredAdkins: Earned by usage 1.6Scored 2.9Sample: Earned by usage 2.3Scored 3.0
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsAdkins: AboveSample: 2 RZ targets
WOPRAdkins: 0.05Sample: 0.07 (best)
Range
FloorAdkins: 0.8Sample: 1.1 (best)
CeilingAdkins: 6.2 (best)Sample: 6.0
Points from TDssteadier when lowerAdkins: 58%Sample: 34%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Adkins: 0%Sample: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterAdkins: 67% (best)Sample: 83%
SteadinessAdkins: Volatile±5.5 pts · 6 gamesSample: Volatile (best)±4.1 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionAdkins: A (best)2026, 6 gmSample: D+2026, 7 gm
Game scriptAdkins: Expected to trailSample: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterAdkins: 1.7Sample: 1.0 (best)
Defense funnelAdkins: NeutralSample: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedAdkins: 12th (average)Sample: 23rd (soft) (best)
Starting QBAdkins: Nix (Active)Sample: Burrow (Active)
Opp defender outAdkins: Norman-Lott (DT)Sample: None listed
Roof / surfaceAdkins: OpengrassSample: Openturf
Rest / scheduleAdkins: NormalSample: Normal
Opp paceAdkins: 24th (slow) (best)Sample: 32nd (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameAdkins: 0.8 (best)29th (soft)Sample: 0.618th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedAdkins: 70% (best)11th (average)Sample: 67%5th (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgAdkins: 0.0Sample: 4.0 (best)
Last 5 avgAdkins: 1.6Sample: 2.6 (best)
vs seasonAdkins: −2.9 (Cooling)Sample: +1.0 (Rising) (best)
Yards per route runAdkins: 1.25 (best)Sample: 0.74
Receiving aDOTAdkins: 6.0Sample: 0.9
Target share trendAdkins: No usage yetSample: Rising
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterAdkins: TE47Sample: TE43 (best)
Yards linereceivingAdkins: Our estimateSample: 7.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.