Bartholomew
TE · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: DNP
Projected points3.3ptsUsage estimate
Gray
TE · KC @ DEN
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points3.6pts
Toss-up
Bench
Gavin Bartholomew or Noah Gray: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Gavin Bartholomew gets the nod over Noah Gray.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Bartholomew's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Gray
The case for Gray is more of the snaps (59% to 17%).
Flips if
If Gavin Bartholomew is ruled out or inactive, start Noah Gray.
Risk
Gavin Bartholomew was DNP in practice: check the final injury report and the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. As of Fri 10:00 PM ET
Highlights
BartholomewToss-upTE · MIN @ DETUsually 2.1+1.3pts this week
Helps him
- +1.0ptspaceMost players at his position produce more than he has, so we expect him to bounce back some.
- DETvs TEsEdgeDET is the softest defense for tight ends.
Hurts him
- 5%targetsHe draws only 5% of his team’s targets.
- 1.3per gameHe sees only 1.3 targets a game.
GrayFirst outTE · KC @ DENUsually 4.6−1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +0.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.12 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
Hurts him
- −1.3ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 13.5 receiving yards, below his usual 26.3.
- −0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 1.5 catches, below his usual 2.0.
- 8%targetsHe draws only 8% of his team’s targets.
- 2.3per gameHe sees only 2.3 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionBartholomew: 3.3Gray: 3.6 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionBartholomew: Our estimateGray: 0.7
Expected TDsthis weekBartholomew: Our estimateGray: 0.12
Projected team pointsBartholomew: 21.3 (best)Gray: 20.8
Red zone targetsper gameBartholomew: 0.2Gray: 0.3 (best)
Role
Snap shareBartholomew: 17%Gray: 59% (best)
Usage worthptsBartholomew: 2.2Gray: 4.0 (best)
Target shareBartholomew: 5%Gray: 8% (best)
Targets / gameBartholomew: 1.3Gray: 2.3 (best)
Air yards shareBartholomew: 2%Gray: 9% (best)
Vacated targets this weekBartholomew: 1.7Gray: 3.8 (best)
RZ target shareBartholomew: 5%Gray: 8% (best)
Inside 10 target shareBartholomew: 20% (best)Gray: 9%
Catch rateBartholomew: 88% (best)Gray: 86%
SeparationBartholomew: 3.9 ydsGray: Not tracked
YAC over expectedBartholomew: −0.2Gray: Not tracked
Usage worth vs scoredBartholomew: Earned by usage 2.2Scored 2.1Gray: Earned by usage 4.0Scored 4.6
WOPRBartholomew: 0.09Gray: 0.20 (best)
Range
FloorBartholomew: 1.7Gray: 1.9 (best)
CeilingBartholomew: 5.7Gray: 6.0 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerBartholomew: 0%Gray: 0%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Bartholomew: 1 gameGray: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterBartholomew: 1 gameGray: 50%
SteadinessBartholomew: 1 gameGray: Up & down±3.4 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionBartholomew: A+ (best)2026, 6 gmGray: C+2026, 7 gm
Game scriptBartholomew: Expected to trailGray: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterBartholomew: 1.0 (best)Gray: 1.4
Defense funnelBartholomew: NeutralGray: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedBartholomew: 32nd (soft) (best)Gray: 17th (average)
Starting QBBartholomew: Murray (Active)Gray: Mahomes (Active)
Opp defender outBartholomew: None listedGray: Elliss (LB)
Roof / surfaceBartholomew: DometurfGray: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleBartholomew: NormalGray: Normal
Opp paceBartholomew: 4th (fast) (best)Gray: 30th (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameBartholomew: 1.3 (best)32nd (soft)Gray: 0.411th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedBartholomew: 77% (best)27th (soft)Gray: 72%13th (average)
Form
Last 3 avgBartholomew: 4.1Gray: 6.5 (best)
Last 5 avgBartholomew: 2.5Gray: 5.3 (best)
vs seasonBartholomew: +2.1 (Rising) (best)Gray: +1.8 (Rising)
Yards per route runBartholomew: 2.35 (best)Gray: 2.14
Receiving aDOTBartholomew: 3.3Gray: 6.9
Target share trendBartholomew: SteadyGray: Cooling
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterBartholomew: TE41Gray: TE39 (best)
Yards linereceivingBartholomew: Our estimateGray: 13.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.