Kraft
TE · GB vs TB
Proj pts
12.2pts
market
Henry
TE · NE vs BUF
Proj pts
11.2pts
market
Hunter Henry or Tucker Kraft: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Tucker Kraft. Bench Hunter Henry. Tucker Kraft leads at 12.2. Hunter Henry is the first one out, 1.0 short.
Crowd: started Kraft 56%
Highlights
Pros
- Red-zone role1.5 RZ targets/g
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
- Spike upside21.7 ceiling
Cons
- Cooling off6.5 last 3
Pros
- Spike upside14.9 ceiling
Cons
- Tough matchupTough · F vs TE
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Tucker Kraft
Start Tucker Kraft — projects 12.2, a favorable matchup vs TB, but the role is cooling.
Tucker Kraft projects 12.2 points on a 6.4–21.7 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TB. Usage: targets / game at 5.5. Net: Tucker Kraft is start this week.
Working for Kraft: Red-zone role (1.5 RZ targets/g), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE), Spike upside (21.7 ceiling).
Working against Kraft: Cooling off (6.5 last 3).
Where Kraft leads the head-to-head: Projection (12.2 vs 11.2); Ceiling (21.7 vs 14.9); Target share (19% vs 18%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs F); Implied team total (21.5 vs 20.8); Last 3 avg (6.5 vs 4.7); Last 5 avg (11.4 vs 7.7); vs season (-1.3 vs -2.4); Consistency (37% vs 33%); Boom rate (25% vs 12%); Targets / game (5.5 vs 5.1); Snap share (86% vs 79%); Touchdown dependence (31% vs 24%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (A- vs F); Implied total (21.5 vs 20.8).
Why Hunter Henry
Sit Hunter Henry — projects 11.2, a tough matchup vs BUF, but the role is cooling.
Hunter Henry projects 11.2 points on a 6.6–14.9 range. The matchup grades as tough against BUF. Usage: targets / game at 5.1. Net: Hunter Henry is a bench this week.
Working for Henry: Spike upside (14.9 ceiling).
Working against Henry: Tough matchup (Tough · F vs TE).
Where Henry leads the head-to-head: Floor (6.6 vs 6.4); Bust rate (18% vs 25%); Red zone targets (24 vs 12).
Recent form
Tucker Kraft's last 5 games: PPR points 33.3, 4, 9.5, 3.5, 6.6 (oldest to newest).
Hunter Henry's last 5 games: PPR points 13.9, 10.6, 5.6, 7, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Kraft has already beaten Henry's 11.2 projection in 1 of his 5; Henry has beaten Kraft's 12.2 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Tucker Kraft (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.
Hunter Henry (NE) faces BUF, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.8, spread +7.0.
What flips it
Kraft's edge is 1 points (12.2 to 11.2). Henry's ceiling (14.9) clears Kraft's projection, so a big game from Henry flips it. Kraft's floor (6.4) sits under Henry's projection, so a quiet game from Kraft flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.