Concepcion
WR · CLE @ PIT
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points11.1pts
Waddle
WR · DEN vs KC
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Chest
Projected points7.7ptsUsage estimate
9.6 if he plays · 80% to play
Lean
Bench
Jaylen Waddle or KC Concepcion: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean KC Concepcion over Jaylen Waddle.
- Ahead by
- +3.4pts
- over Waddle
- Confidence
- Moderate
- Jaylen Waddle may not play (about 80% to play)
- Started
- 58%
- of leagues
Waddle's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on KC Concepcion or a bigger role for Jaylen Waddle.
Risk
Jaylen Waddle was limited in practice (chest): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. As of Fri 1:00 PM ET
Highlights
ConcepcionLeanWR · CLE @ PITUsually 10.2+0.8pts this week
Helps him
- +1.5ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.25 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
Hurts him
- −0.6ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 46.0 receiving yards, below his usual 51.7.
- 7th toughestper targetEdgePIT allows plenty of WR chances because receivers see plenty of targets on them; per target they’re tough (1.60 pts, 7th toughest).
WaddleFirst outWR · DEN vs KCUsually 9.1−1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +1.8ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
Hurts him
- −1.9ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 1.9 points off his projection.
- −0.9ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- KCvs WRsEdgeKC is the 7th toughest defense for receivers.
- 66%snapsHe plays only 66% of snaps, so his work comes in rotation.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionConcepcion: 11.1 (best)Waddle: 7.7
TD pointsof the projectionConcepcion: 1.5Waddle: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekConcepcion: 0.25Waddle: Our estimate
Projected team pointsConcepcion: 18.0Waddle: 19.8 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameConcepcion: 0.0Waddle: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameConcepcion: 0.3 (best)Waddle: 0.0
Red zone targetsper gameConcepcion: 0.4Waddle: 0.7 (best)
Role
Snap shareConcepcion: 70% (best)Waddle: 66%
Usage worthptsConcepcion: 11.0 (best)Waddle: 10.9
Touch shareConcepcion: 12% (best)Waddle: 9%
Target shareConcepcion: 22%Waddle: 23% (best)
Touches / gameConcepcion: 5.6 (best)Waddle: 4.0
Targets / gameConcepcion: 6.4Waddle: 6.4
Air yards shareConcepcion: 22%Waddle: 37% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsConcepcion: BelowWaddle: In line
WOPRConcepcion: 0.48Waddle: 0.60 (best)
RZ target shareConcepcion: 17% (best)Waddle: 15%
Catch rateConcepcion: 67% (best)Waddle: 58%
SeparationConcepcion: 3.2 ydsWaddle: 3.7 yds (best)
YAC over expectedConcepcion: +1.3 (best)Waddle: +0.5
Usage worth vs scoredConcepcion: Earned by usage 11.0Scored 9.0Waddle: Earned by usage 10.9Scored 9.1
Rush yards / gameConcepcion: 4.9 (best)Waddle: 3.3
Points from rushingConcepcion: 5%Waddle: 4%
Vacated targets this weekConcepcion: 0.0Waddle: 3.0 (best)
High value touches / gameConcepcion: 4.4 (best)Waddle: 3.7
Goal line carry shareConcepcion: 0%Waddle: 0%
Red zone touches / gameConcepcion: 0.7 (best)Waddle: 0.6
Rush success rateConcepcion: 33%Waddle: 100% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Concepcion: 0%Waddle: 0%
Inside 10 target shareConcepcion: 0%Waddle: 0%
Rushing points / gameConcepcion: 0.5 pts / game (best)Waddle: 0.3 pts / game
Rushing floorConcepcion: 0.0 pts / gameWaddle: 0.0 pts / game
Range
FloorConcepcion: 7.1 (best)Waddle: 4.7
CeilingConcepcion: 17.1 (best)Waddle: 12.8
Points from TDssteadier when lowerConcepcion: 0%Waddle: 9%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Concepcion: 17% (best)Waddle: 14%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterConcepcion: 17% (best)Waddle: 57%
SteadinessConcepcion: Up & down (best)±6.9 pts · 6 gamesWaddle: Up & down±6.9 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionConcepcion: B- (best)2026, 7 gmWaddle: D2026, 6 gm
Game scriptConcepcion: Expected to trailWaddle: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterConcepcion: 1.6 (best)Waddle: 1.7
Defense funnelConcepcion: NeutralWaddle: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedConcepcion: 13th (average) (best)Waddle: 12th (average)
Starting QBConcepcion: Watson (Active)Waddle: Nix (Active)
Opp defender outConcepcion: Joseph-Day (DT)Waddle: None listed
Roof / surfacegrassConcepcion: OpenWaddle: Open
Rest / scheduleConcepcion: NormalWaddle: Normal
Opp paceConcepcion: 13th (average) (best)Waddle: 24th (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameConcepcion: 3.3 (best)19th (average)Waddle: 3.217th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedConcepcion: 61% (best)14th (average)Waddle: 57%5th (tough)
Opp rush yds allowedConcepcion: 7th (tough)Waddle: 13th (average) (best)
Opp stuff rateConcepcion: 23%3rd (tough)Waddle: 21% (best)9th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedConcepcion: 3.6 (best)4th (tough)Waddle: 3.42nd (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgConcepcion: 10.9 (best)Waddle: 6.7
Last 5 avgConcepcion: 9.4 (best)Waddle: 8.2
vs seasonConcepcion: +1.9 (Rising) (best)Waddle: −2.5 (Cooling)
Yards per carryConcepcion: 3.8Waddle: 2 carries
Carries / gameConcepcion: 1.3 (best)Waddle: 0.3
Yards per route runConcepcion: 1.91 (best)Waddle: 1.62
Receiving aDOTConcepcion: 7.6Waddle: 10.1
Target share trendConcepcion: Left Week 5 hurtWaddle: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesConcepcion: 59% (best)Waddle: 43%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterConcepcion: WR26 (best)Waddle: WR48
Yards linereceivingConcepcion: 46.0Waddle: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.