Cuevas
TE · BAL @ BUF
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points3.1pts
Hibner
TE · BAL @ BUF
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETNo game status yet, practice Full
Projected points3.4ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Josh Cuevas or Matthew Hibner: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Need a safe week? Josh Cuevas. Swinging for a big week? Matthew Hibner.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Hibner's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Hibner
Cuevas has the safer floor (1.5 to 1.0); Hibner has more upside (a ceiling of 6.5 to 5.5).
Flips if
Start Matthew Hibner instead if you want more of the snaps (42% to 23%).
Risk
Matthew Hibner has played 1 game since missing time.
Highlights
CuevasToss-upTE · BAL @ BUFUsually 3.8−0.7pts this week
Helps him
- +4.3last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 4.3 points above his season average.
Hurts him
- −0.7ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 10.5 receiving yards, below his usual 17.0.
- 5%targetsHe draws only 5% of his team’s targets.
- 1.6per gameHe sees only 1.6 targets a game.
HibnerFirst outTE · BAL @ BUFUsually 3.0+0.4pts this week
Helps him
- 1sthighest totalEdgeHe plays in the highest scoring game on the slate.
Hurts him
- 4%targetsHe draws only 4% of his team’s targets.
- 0.8per gameHe sees only 0.8 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionCuevas: 3.1Hibner: 3.4 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionCuevas: 0.6Hibner: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekCuevas: 0.10Hibner: Our estimate
Projected team pointsCuevas: 25.8Hibner: 25.8
Red zone targetsper gameCuevas: 0.3 (best)Hibner: 0.2
Role
Snap shareCuevas: 23%Hibner: 42% (best)
Usage worthptsCuevas: 2.7 (best)Hibner: 1.5
Target shareCuevas: 5% (best)Hibner: 4%
Targets / gameCuevas: 1.6 (best)Hibner: 0.8
Air yards shareCuevas: 3% (best)Hibner: 2%
Vacated targets this weekCuevas: 0.7Hibner: 0.7
RZ target shareCuevas: 7% (best)Hibner: 4%
Inside 10 target shareCuevas: 8%Hibner: 9% (best)
Catch rateCuevas: 82%Hibner: 100% (best)
SeparationCuevas: 4.3 ydsHibner: Not tracked
YAC over expectedCuevas: +2.0Hibner: Not tracked
Usage worth vs scoredCuevas: Earned by usage 2.7Scored 3.8Hibner: Earned by usage 1.5Scored 3.0
WOPRCuevas: 0.10 (best)Hibner: 0.07
Range
FloorCuevas: 1.5 (best)Hibner: 1.0
CeilingCuevas: 5.5Hibner: 6.5 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerCuevas: 22%Hibner: 33%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Cuevas: 0%Hibner: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterCuevas: 75%Hibner: 67% (best)
SteadinessCuevas: Volatile (best)±6.3 pts · 4 gamesHibner: Volatile±4.2 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmCuevas: D+Hibner: D+
Game scriptCuevas: Expected to trailHibner: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterCuevas: 1.0Hibner: 1.0
Defense funnelCuevas: NeutralHibner: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedCuevas: 31st (soft)Hibner: 31st (soft)
Starting QBCuevas: Huntley (Active)Hibner: Huntley (Active)
Roof / surfaceturfCuevas: OpenHibner: Open
Rest / scheduleCuevas: NormalHibner: Normal
Opp paceCuevas: 24th (slow)Hibner: 24th (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / game23rd (soft)Cuevas: 0.7Hibner: 0.7
Opp catch rate allowed8th (tough)Cuevas: 68%Hibner: 68%
Form
Last 3 avgCuevas: 8.2 (best)Hibner: 1.8
Last 5 avgCuevas: 5.4 (best)Hibner: 3.1
vs seasonCuevas: +4.3 (Rising) (best)Hibner: −1.2 (Cooling)
Yards per route runCuevas: 2.70 (best)Hibner: 1.79
Receiving aDOTCuevas: 4.5Hibner: 5.0
Target share trendCuevas: SteadyHibner: Steady
Games since injuryCuevas: None recentlyHibner: 1
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterCuevas: TE44Hibner: TE40 (best)
Yards linereceivingCuevas: 10.5Hibner: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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