Dowdle
RB · PIT vs CLE
Proj pts
9.9pts
opportunity
Johnson
RB · GB vs TB
Proj pts
8.5pts
market
Kaleb Johnson or Rico Dowdle: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Rico Dowdle. Bench Kaleb Johnson. Rico Dowdle leads at 9.9. Kaleb Johnson is the first one out, 1.4 short.
Availability & news
Rico DowdlePractice: DNP
Highlights
Pros
- Positive game scriptFavored
- Big-play upside40% boom weeks
Cons
- Committee back4% of touches
- Shaky floor0.4 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Dowdle 26%, Johnson 2%.
Dowdle is listed: Practice: DNP.
Latest game on the card: Dowdle 6.4, Johnson 2.6 (PPR points).
Why Rico Dowdle
Start Rico Dowdle — projects 9.9, an even matchup vs CLE, but the role is cooling.
Rico Dowdle projects 9.9 points on a 7.7–14.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against CLE. Usage: carries / game at 13.9. Net: start Rico Dowdle this week.
Where Dowdle leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.9 vs 8.5); Floor (7.7 vs 0.4); Ceiling (14.1 vs 10.0); Touch share (35% vs 4%); Opportunity score (13.0 vs 2.1); Last 3 avg (5.2 vs 1.9); Last 5 avg (6.6 vs 1.3); Consistency (26% vs 2%); Bust rate (29% vs 60%); Carries / game (13.9 vs 2.8); Touches / game (16.2 vs 2.9); Target share (11% vs 1%); Yards per carry (4.6 vs 2.5); Snap share (56% vs 9%); Goal line carries (9 vs 0); Red zone carries (35 vs 4).
Why Kaleb Johnson
Sit Kaleb Johnson — projects 8.5, an even matchup vs TB, with a rising role.
Kaleb Johnson projects 8.5 points on a 0.4–10.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 2.8. Net: bench Kaleb Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: Positive game script (Favored), Big-play upside (40% boom weeks).
Working against Johnson: Committee back (4% of touches), Shaky floor (0.4 floor).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (21.0 vs 20.5); vs season (+0.1 vs -3.1); Boom rate (40% vs 18%); Rest / schedule (9 days rest vs Short week (4d)).
Recent form
Rico Dowdle's last 5 games: PPR points 8.3, 9.3, 5, 4.1, 6.4 (oldest to newest).
Kaleb Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 0.4, 0.4, 0, 3.2, 2.6 (oldest to newest).
Dowdle's worst of these 5 (4.1) beats Johnson's best (3.2).
Dowdle has already beaten Johnson's 8.5 projection in 1 of his 5; Johnson has beaten Dowdle's 9.9 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Rico Dowdle (PIT) played CLE (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
Kaleb Johnson (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Dowdle's edge is 1.4 points (9.9 to 8.5). Johnson's ceiling (10) clears Dowdle's projection, so a big game from Johnson flips it. Dowdle's floor (7.7) sits under Johnson's projection, so a quiet game from Dowdle flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Rico Dowdle comparisons
- Kenny Gainwell or Rico Dowdle9.9 · 9.9
- Rico Dowdle or Travis Etienne9.9 · 10.5
- Emanuel Wilson or Rico Dowdle11.5 · 9.9
This week's toughest calls
- Chuba Hubbard or James Cook21.7 · 21.7
- Alvin Kamara or David Montgomery17.3 · 17.3
- Aaron Jones or Jeremiyah Love22.7 · 22.6
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.3 · 17.3
- Bhayshul Tuten or Bucky Irving16.8 · 16.8
- Omarion Hampton or Woody Marks12.2 · 12.2
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)