Johnston
WR · LAC vs SEA
Proj pts
9.7pts
market
Harrison
WR · ARI vs NYG
Proj pts
9.4pts
market
Marvin Harrison Jr. or Quentin Johnston: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Quentin Johnston. Bench Marvin Harrison Jr. Quentin Johnston leads at 9.7. Marvin Harrison Jr. is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low team total17.8 team total
- Tough matchupTough · D vs WR
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR
Cons
- Shaky floor3.2 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Quentin Johnston
Start Quentin Johnston — projects 9.7, a tough matchup vs SEA, but the role is cooling.
Quentin Johnston projects 9.7 points on a 3.2–14.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against SEA. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Net: Quentin Johnston is start this week.
Working against Johnston: Low team total (17.8 team total), Tough matchup (Tough · D vs WR).
Where Johnston leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.7 vs 9.4); Ceiling (14.1 vs 14.0); Target share (20% vs 18%); Last 3 avg (4.4 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (7.0 vs 2.7); vs season (-1.0 vs -5.0); Consistency (46% vs 38%); Bust rate (15% vs 27%); Targets / game (6.5 vs 6.1); Snap share (79% vs 71%); Red zone targets (15 vs 11).
Why Marvin Harrison Jr.
Sit Marvin Harrison Jr. — projects 9.4, a favorable matchup vs NYG, but the role is cooling.
Marvin Harrison Jr. projects 9.4 points on a 3.2–14.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYG. Usage: targets / game at 6.1. Net: Marvin Harrison Jr. is a bench this week.
Working for Harrison: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).
Working against Harrison: Shaky floor (3.2 floor).
Where Harrison leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs D); Implied team total (23.0 vs 17.8); Boom rate (27% vs 23%); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (B+ vs D); Implied total (23.0 vs 17.8).
Recent form
Quentin Johnston's last 4 games: PPR points 14.8, 3.7, 2.4, 7 (oldest to newest).
Marvin Harrison Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 2.4, 0, 4.3, 0, 7 (oldest to newest).
Johnston has already beaten Harrison's 9.4 projection in 1 of his 4; Harrison has beaten Johnston's 9.7 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Quentin Johnston (LAC) faces SEA, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 17.8, spread +7.0.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -1.5.
What flips it
Johnston's edge is 0.3 points (9.7 to 9.4). Harrison's ceiling (14) clears Johnston's projection, so a big game from Harrison flips it. Johnston's floor (3.2) sits under Harrison's projection, so a quiet game from Johnston flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.