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Scoring
#1 Start

Harrison

WR · ARI vs NYG

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

9.4pts

market

Mod Conf
Bench

Hutchinson

WR · HOU vs DAL

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

8.9pts

market

Mod Conf

Marvin Harrison Jr. or Xavier Hutchinson: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Marvin Harrison Jr over Xavier Hutchinson by 0.5. Marvin Harrison Jr. leads at 9.4. Xavier Hutchinson is the first one out, 0.5 short.

Highlights

Marvin Harrison Jr.Start
WR · ARI vs NYG

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR

Cons

  • Shaky floor3.2 floor
Xavier HutchinsonBench
WR · HOU vs DAL

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR

Cons

  • Low target share11% target share
  • Thin volume3.6 targets/g

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

HarrisonStart
HutchinsonBench
Projection9.48.9
Floor3.23.5
Ceiling14.010.9
Target share18%11%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)B+A+
Implied team total23.025.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Harrison 2.7, Hutchinson 8.7.

Latest game on the card: Harrison 7, Hutchinson 8.5 (PPR points).

Why Marvin Harrison Jr.

Start Marvin Harrison Jr. — projects 9.4, a favorable matchup vs NYG, but the role is cooling.

Marvin Harrison Jr. projects 9.4 points on a 3.2–14.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYG. Usage: targets / game at 6.1. Net: start Marvin Harrison Jr. this week.

Working for Harrison: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).

Working against Harrison: Shaky floor (3.2 floor).

Where Harrison leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.4 vs 8.9); Ceiling (14.0 vs 10.9); Target share (18% vs 11%); Consistency (38% vs 17%); Boom rate (27% vs 19%); Bust rate (27% vs 31%); Targets / game (6.1 vs 3.6); Snap share (71% vs 58%); Red zone targets (11 vs 8).

Why Xavier Hutchinson

Sit Xavier Hutchinson — projects 8.9, a favorable matchup vs DAL, with a rising role.

Xavier Hutchinson projects 8.9 points on a 3.5–10.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against DAL. Usage: targets / game at 3.6. Net: bench Xavier Hutchinson this week.

Working for Hutchinson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR).

Working against Hutchinson: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.6 targets/g).

Where Hutchinson leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.5 vs 3.2); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs B+); Implied team total (25.5 vs 23.0); Last 3 avg (7.1 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (8.7 vs 2.7); vs season (+3.1 vs -5.0).

Recent form

Marvin Harrison Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 2.4, 0, 4.3, 0, 7 (oldest to newest).

Xavier Hutchinson's last 4 games: PPR points 13.4, 6.2, 6.7, 8.5 (oldest to newest).

Harrison has already beaten Hutchinson's 8.9 projection in 0 of his 5; Hutchinson has beaten Harrison's 9.4 in 1 of his 4.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -1.5.

Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) faces DAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 25.5, spread -2.5.

What flips it

Harrison's edge is 0.5 points (9.4 to 8.9). Hutchinson's ceiling (10.9) clears Harrison's projection, so a big game from Hutchinson flips it. Harrison's floor (3.2) sits under Hutchinson's projection, so a quiet game from Harrison flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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