Boerkircher
TE · JAX vs IND
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points3.0pts
Hibner
TE · BAL @ BUF
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETNo game status yet, practice Full
Projected points3.4ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Matthew Hibner or Nate Boerkircher: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Nate Boerkircher gets the nod over Matthew Hibner.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Hibner's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Hibner
The case for Hibner is more upside (a ceiling of 6.5 to 5.3) and fewer dud weeks (67% of his games to 83%).
Flips if
Start Matthew Hibner instead if you want fewer dud weeks (67% of his games to 83%).
Risk
Matthew Hibner has played 1 game since missing time.
Highlights
BoerkircherToss-upTE · JAX vs INDUsually 2.9+0.2pts this week
Helps him
- +0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 1.5 catches, above his usual 1.0.
- 28.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 28.3 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- 83%dud weeks83% of his games have been dud weeks.
- 0%big weeksHe hasn’t had a big week this season.
HibnerFirst outTE · BAL @ BUFUsually 3.0+0.4pts this week
Helps him
- 1sthighest totalEdgeHe plays in the highest scoring game on the slate.
Hurts him
- 4%targetsHe draws only 4% of his team’s targets.
- 0.8per gameHe sees only 0.8 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionBoerkircher: 3.0Hibner: 3.4 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionBoerkircher: 0.9Hibner: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekBoerkircher: 0.15Hibner: Our estimate
Projected team pointsBoerkircher: 28.3 (best)Hibner: 25.8
Red zone targetsper gameBoerkircher: 0.3 (best)Hibner: 0.2
Role
Snap shareBoerkircher: 48% (best)Hibner: 42%
Usage worthptsBoerkircher: 2.3 (best)Hibner: 1.5
Target shareBoerkircher: 5% (best)Hibner: 4%
Targets / gameBoerkircher: 1.3 (best)Hibner: 0.8
Air yards shareBoerkircher: 2%Hibner: 2%
Vacated targets this weekBoerkircher: 0.0Hibner: 0.7 (best)
RZ target shareBoerkircher: 6% (best)Hibner: 4%
Inside 10 target shareBoerkircher: 9%Hibner: 9%
Catch rateBoerkircher: 75%Hibner: 100% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredBoerkircher: Earned by usage 2.3Scored 2.9Hibner: Earned by usage 1.5Scored 3.0
WOPRBoerkircher: 0.09 (best)Hibner: 0.07
Range
FloorBoerkircher: 1.3 (best)Hibner: 1.0
CeilingBoerkircher: 5.3Hibner: 6.5 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerBoerkircher: 35%Hibner: 33%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Boerkircher: 0%Hibner: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterBoerkircher: 83%Hibner: 67% (best)
SteadinessBoerkircher: Volatile (best)±3.3 pts · 6 gamesHibner: Volatile±4.2 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionBoerkircher: B- (best)2026, 7 gmHibner: D+2026, 6 gm
Game scriptBoerkircher: Expected to lead (best)Hibner: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterBoerkircher: 0.4 (best)Hibner: 1.0
Defense funnelBoerkircher: NeutralHibner: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedBoerkircher: 11th (average)Hibner: 31st (soft) (best)
Starting QBBoerkircher: Lawrence (Active)Hibner: Huntley (Active)
Opp defender outBoerkircher: Walley (CB)Hibner: None listed
Roof / surfaceBoerkircher: OpengrassHibner: Openturf
Rest / scheduleBoerkircher: Off a byeHibner: Normal
Opp paceBoerkircher: 7th (fast) (best)Hibner: 24th (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / game23rd (soft)Boerkircher: 0.7Hibner: 0.7
Opp catch rate allowedBoerkircher: 68%7th (tough)Hibner: 68%8th (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgBoerkircher: 5.1 (best)Hibner: 1.8
Last 5 avgBoerkircher: 3.1Hibner: 3.1
vs seasonBoerkircher: +2.2 (Rising) (best)Hibner: −1.2 (Cooling)
Yards per route runBoerkircher: 0.98Hibner: 1.79 (best)
Receiving aDOTBoerkircher: 4.3Hibner: 5.0
Target share trendBoerkircher: SteadyHibner: Steady
Games since injuryBoerkircher: None recentlyHibner: 1
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterBoerkircher: TE45Hibner: TE40 (best)
Yards linereceivingBoerkircher: 6.5Hibner: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.