Gray
TE · KC @ DEN
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points3.6pts
Hibner
TE · BAL @ BUF
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETNo game status yet, practice Full
Projected points3.4ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Matthew Hibner or Noah Gray: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Noah Gray gets the nod over Matthew Hibner.
- Ahead by
- +0.2pts
- over Hibner
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Hibner's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Hibner
The case for Hibner is an offense expected to score more (25.8 points to 20.8) and more upside (a ceiling of 6.5 to 6.0).
Flips if
Start Matthew Hibner instead if you want an offense expected to score more (25.8 points to 20.8).
Risk
Matthew Hibner has played 1 game since missing time.
Highlights
GrayToss-upTE · KC @ DENUsually 4.6−1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +0.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.12 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
Hurts him
- −1.3ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 13.5 receiving yards, below his usual 26.3.
- −0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 1.5 catches, below his usual 2.0.
- 8%targetsHe draws only 8% of his team’s targets.
- 2.3per gameHe sees only 2.3 targets a game.
HibnerFirst outTE · BAL @ BUFUsually 3.0+0.4pts this week
Helps him
- 1sthighest totalEdgeHe plays in the highest scoring game on the slate.
Hurts him
- 4%targetsHe draws only 4% of his team’s targets.
- 0.8per gameHe sees only 0.8 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionGray: 3.6 (best)Hibner: 3.4
TD pointsof the projectionGray: 0.7Hibner: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekGray: 0.12Hibner: Our estimate
Projected team pointsGray: 20.8Hibner: 25.8 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameGray: 0.3 (best)Hibner: 0.2
Role
Snap shareGray: 59% (best)Hibner: 42%
Usage worthptsGray: 4.0 (best)Hibner: 1.5
Target shareGray: 8% (best)Hibner: 4%
Targets / gameGray: 2.3 (best)Hibner: 0.8
Air yards shareGray: 9% (best)Hibner: 2%
Vacated targets this weekGray: 3.8 (best)Hibner: 0.7
RZ target shareGray: 8% (best)Hibner: 4%
Inside 10 target shareGray: 9%Hibner: 9%
Catch rateGray: 86%Hibner: 100% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredGray: Earned by usage 4.0Scored 4.6Hibner: Earned by usage 1.5Scored 3.0
WOPRGray: 0.20 (best)Hibner: 0.07
Range
FloorGray: 1.9 (best)Hibner: 1.0
CeilingGray: 6.0Hibner: 6.5 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerGray: 0%Hibner: 33%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Gray: 0%Hibner: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterGray: 50% (best)Hibner: 67%
SteadinessGray: Up & down (best)±3.4 pts · 6 gamesHibner: Volatile±4.2 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionGray: C+ (best)2026, 7 gmHibner: D+2026, 6 gm
Game scriptGray: Expected to lead (best)Hibner: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterGray: 1.4Hibner: 1.0 (best)
Defense funnelGray: NeutralHibner: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedGray: 17th (average)Hibner: 31st (soft) (best)
Starting QBGray: Mahomes (Active)Hibner: Huntley (Active)
Opp defender outGray: Elliss (LB)Hibner: None listed
Roof / surfaceGray: OpengrassHibner: Openturf
Rest / scheduleGray: NormalHibner: Normal
Opp paceGray: 30th (slow)Hibner: 24th (slow) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameGray: 0.411th (average)Hibner: 0.7 (best)23rd (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedGray: 72% (best)13th (average)Hibner: 68%8th (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgGray: 6.5 (best)Hibner: 1.8
Last 5 avgGray: 5.3 (best)Hibner: 3.1
vs seasonGray: +1.8 (Rising) (best)Hibner: −1.2 (Cooling)
Yards per route runGray: 2.14 (best)Hibner: 1.79
Receiving aDOTGray: 6.9Hibner: 5.0
Target share trendGray: CoolingHibner: Steady
Games since injuryGray: None recentlyHibner: 1
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterGray: TE39 (best)Hibner: TE40
Yards linereceivingGray: 13.5Hibner: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.