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Scoring
#1 Start

Collins

WR · HOU vs DAL

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

18.9pts

market

Mod Conf
Bench

McMillan

WR · CAR vs DET

Sun 8:20 PM

Proj pts

17.4pts

market

Mod Conf

Nico Collins or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Nico Collins. Bench Tetairoa McMillan. Nico Collins leads at 18.9. Tetairoa McMillan is the first one out, 1.5 short.

Crowd: 64% of managers started Collins, 88% started McMillan.

Availability & news

  • Nico CollinsPractice: Limited

    Collins (hamstring) remained limited at Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Nico CollinsStart
WR · HOU vs DAL

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR
  • High floor13.1 floor
Tetairoa McMillanBench
WR · CAR vs DET

Pros

  • Alpha target share26% target share
  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs WR

Cons

  • Below your start line1.5 pts short

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

CollinsStart
McMillanBench
Projection18.917.4
Floor13.18.7
Ceiling23.217.8
Target share24%26%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)A+A
Implied team total25.823.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Collins 15.9, McMillan 8.9.

Collins (Practice: Limited): “Collins (hamstring) remained limited at Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Collins 21.2, McMillan 3.7 (PPR points).

Why Nico Collins

Start Nico Collins — projects 18.9, a favorable matchup vs DAL.

Nico Collins projects 18.9 points on a 13.1–23.2 range. The matchup grades as favorable against DAL. Usage: targets / game at 8.0. Net: start Nico Collins this week.

Working for Collins: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR), High floor (13.1 floor).

Where Collins leads the head-to-head: Projection (18.9 vs 17.4); Floor (13.1 vs 8.7); Ceiling (23.2 vs 17.8); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs A); Implied team total (25.8 vs 23.5); Last 3 avg (13.3 vs 9.8); Last 5 avg (15.9 vs 8.9); vs season (-1.2 vs -3.6); Consistency (58% vs 47%); Boom rate (13% vs 12%); Bust rate (13% vs 18%); Targets / game (8.0 vs 7.2); Red zone targets (19 vs 15).

Why Tetairoa McMillan

Sit Tetairoa McMillan — projects 17.4, a favorable matchup vs DET.

Tetairoa McMillan projects 17.4 points on a 8.7–17.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against DET. Usage: targets / game at 7.2. Net: bench Tetairoa McMillan this week.

Working for McMillan: Alpha target share (26% target share), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs WR).

Working against McMillan: Below your start line (1.5 pts short).

Where McMillan leads the head-to-head: Target share (26% vs 24%); Snap share (87% vs 77%).

Recent form

Nico Collins's last 5 games: PPR points 16.1, 23.5, 9.9, 8.7, 21.2 (oldest to newest).

Tetairoa McMillan's last 5 games: PPR points 2.5, 12.5, 10.5, 15.1, 3.7 (oldest to newest).

Collins has already beaten McMillan's 17.4 projection in 2 of his 5; McMillan has beaten Collins's 18.9 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Nico Collins (HOU) faces DAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 25.8, spread -3.0.

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.

What flips it

Collins's edge is 1.5 points (18.9 to 17.4). Collins's floor (13.1) sits under McMillan's projection, so a quiet game from Collins flips it. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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More Tetairoa McMillan comparisons

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