Koziol
TE · JAX vs IND
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points1.0ptsUsage estimate
Kacmarek
TE · MIA vs NE
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ETLatest report: Limited · hamstring
Projected points1.0pts
Toss-up
Bench
Tanner Koziol or Will Kacmarek: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Tanner Koziol gets the nod over Will Kacmarek.
- Ahead by
- Level
- with Kacmarek
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Koziol's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Kacmarek
The case for Kacmarek is more of the snaps (43% to 11%) and a defense that allows more catches (70% of targets to 68%).
Flips if
Start Will Kacmarek instead if you want more of the snaps (43% to 11%).
Risk
Will Kacmarek was limited in practice: check the final injury report and the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. Weather in Will Kacmarek's game: Outdoor · 73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff. As of Fri 8:00 PM ET
Highlights
KoziolToss-upTE · JAX vs INDUsually 0.0+1.0pts this week
Helps him
- +2.6ptspaceMost players at his position produce more than he has, so we expect him to bounce back some.
- 28.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 28.3 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- −1.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play fewer snaps this week than he has lately.
- 0%targetsHe draws only 0% of his team’s targets.
- 0.0per gameHe sees only 0.0 targets a game.
KacmarekFirst outTE · MIA vs NEUsually 0.9+0.1pts this week
Helps him
- 1.6ceilingHis best weeks reach about 1.6 points.
Hurts him
- 5%targetsHe draws only 5% of his team’s targets.
- 1.0per gameHe sees only 1.0 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionKoziol: 1.0Kacmarek: 1.0
TD pointsof the projectionKoziol: Our estimateKacmarek: 0.4
Expected TDsthis weekKoziol: Our estimateKacmarek: 0.07
Projected team pointsKoziol: 28.3 (best)Kacmarek: 18.0
Red zone targetsper gameKoziol: 0.0Kacmarek: 0.0
Role
Snap shareKoziol: 11%Kacmarek: 43% (best)
Usage worthptsKoziol: 0 targetsKacmarek: 1.5
Target shareKoziol: 0%Kacmarek: 5% (best)
Targets / gameKoziol: 0.0Kacmarek: 1.0 (best)
Air yards shareKoziol: 0 targetsKacmarek: 2%
Vacated targets this weekKoziol: 0.0Kacmarek: 0.0
RZ target shareKoziol: 0 targetsKacmarek: 0%
Inside 10 target shareKoziol: 0 targetsKacmarek: 0%
Catch rateKoziol: 0 targetsKacmarek: 50%
Usage worth vs scoredKoziol: 0 targetsKacmarek: Earned by usage 1.5Scored 0.9
WOPRKoziol: 0Kacmarek: 0.09 (best)
Range
FloorKoziol: 0.5Kacmarek: 0.5
CeilingKoziol: 1.7 (best)Kacmarek: 1.6
Points from TDssteadier when lowerKoziol: 0 ptsKacmarek: 0%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Koziol: 0%Kacmarek: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterKoziol: 100%Kacmarek: 100%
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmKoziol: B- (best)Kacmarek: C-
Game scriptKoziol: Expected to lead (best)Kacmarek: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterKoziol: 0.4 (best)Kacmarek: 1.0
Defense funnelKoziol: NeutralKacmarek: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedKoziol: 11th (average)Kacmarek: 19th (average) (best)
Starting QBKoziol: Lawrence (Active)Kacmarek: Willis (Active)
Opp defender outKoziol: Walley (CB)Kacmarek: None listed
WeatherKoziol: No concernKacmarek: Outdoor73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain
Roof / surfacegrassKoziol: OpenKacmarek: Open
Rest / scheduleKoziol: Off a byeKacmarek: Normal
Opp paceKoziol: 7th (fast) (best)Kacmarek: 16th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameKoziol: 0.723rd (soft)Kacmarek: 0.9 (best)30th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedKoziol: 68%7th (tough)Kacmarek: 70% (best)10th (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgKoziol: 0.0Kacmarek: 1.3 (best)
Last 5 avgKoziol: 0.0Kacmarek: 1.1 (best)
vs seasonKoziol: 0.0Kacmarek: +0.4 (Rising) (best)
Yards per route runKoziol: Not in yetKacmarek: 0.67
Receiving aDOTKoziol: 0 targetsKacmarek: 4.3
Target share trendKoziol: No usage yetKacmarek: Cooling
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterKoziol: TE79 (best)Kacmarek: TE80
Yards linereceivingKoziol: Our estimateKacmarek: 0.5
Deciding on someone else?
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