McMillan
WR · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
17.4pts
market
Higgins
WR · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
16.8pts
market
Tee Higgins or Tetairoa McMillan: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Tetairoa McMillan over Tee Higgins by 0.6. Tetairoa McMillan leads at 17.4. Tee Higgins is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Crowd: 88% of managers started McMillan, 94% started Higgins.
Highlights
Pros
- Alpha target share26% target share
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs WR
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- High floor13.0 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: McMillan 12%, Higgins 20%.
Latest game on the card: McMillan 3.7, Higgins 21 (PPR points).
Why Tetairoa McMillan
Start Tetairoa McMillan — projects 17.4, a favorable matchup vs DET.
Tetairoa McMillan projects 17.4 points on a 8.7–17.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against DET. Usage: targets / game at 7.2. Net: start Tetairoa McMillan this week.
Working for McMillan: Alpha target share (26% target share), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs WR).
Where McMillan leads the head-to-head: Projection (17.4 vs 16.8); Target share (26% vs 18%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs B-); Consistency (47% vs 44%); Bust rate (18% vs 20%); Targets / game (7.2 vs 6.5); Snap share (87% vs 81%).
Why Tee Higgins
Sit Tee Higgins — projects 16.8, an even matchup vs JAX.
Tee Higgins projects 16.8 points on a 13.0–25.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Net: bench Tee Higgins this week.
Working for Higgins: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), High floor (13.0 floor).
Where Higgins leads the head-to-head: Floor (13.0 vs 8.7); Ceiling (25.0 vs 17.8); Implied team total (27.0 vs 23.5); Last 3 avg (14.8 vs 9.8); Last 5 avg (14.6 vs 8.9); vs season (-2.5 vs -3.6); Boom rate (20% vs 12%); Red zone targets (16 vs 15).
Recent form
Tetairoa McMillan's last 5 games: PPR points 2.5, 12.5, 10.5, 15.1, 3.7 (oldest to newest).
Tee Higgins's last 5 games: PPR points 9.9, 18.7, 8.9, 14.5, 21 (oldest to newest).
McMillan has already beaten Higgins's 16.8 projection in 0 of his 5; Higgins has beaten McMillan's 17.4 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
Tee Higgins (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
McMillan's edge is 0.6 points (17.4 to 16.8). Higgins's ceiling (25) clears McMillan's projection, so a big game from Higgins flips it. McMillan's floor (8.7) sits under Higgins's projection, so a quiet game from McMillan flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Tee Higgins comparisons
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- George Pickens or Tee Higgins16.9 · 16.8
- Michael Wilson or Tee Higgins16.4 · 16.8
- Josh Downs or Tee Higgins17.3 · 16.8
More Tetairoa McMillan comparisons
- Josh Downs or Tetairoa McMillan17.3 · 17.4
- DeVonta Smith or Tetairoa McMillan17.4 · 17.4
- Davante Adams or Tetairoa McMillan17.7 · 17.4
- George Pickens or Tetairoa McMillan16.9 · 17.4
This week's toughest calls
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)