Williams
RB · LA vs PHI
Proj pts
19.8pts
market
Kamara
RB · NO vs ATL
Proj pts
17.3pts
market
Alvin Kamara or Kyren Williams: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Kyren Williams. Bench Alvin Kamara. Kyren Williams leads at 19.8. Alvin Kamara is the first one out, 2.5 short.
Crowd: 97% of managers started Williams.
Highlights
Pros
- Goal-line back1.2 GL carries/g
- Positive game scriptFavored
- High floor12.7 floor
Pros
- Spike upside22.4 ceiling
Cons
- Below your start line2.5 pts short
- Committee back20% of touches
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is goal line carries: Williams 20, Kamara 2.
Latest game on the card: Williams 21.8, Kamara 5.1 (PPR points).
Why Kyren Williams
Start Kyren Williams — projects 19.8, an even matchup vs PHI.
Kyren Williams projects 19.8 points on a 12.7–20.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against PHI. Usage: carries / game at 15.2. Net: start Kyren Williams this week.
Working for Williams: Goal-line back (1.2 GL carries/g), Positive game script (Favored), High floor (12.7 floor).
Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Projection (19.8 vs 17.3); Floor (12.7 vs 6.7); Touch share (35% vs 20%); Opportunity score (13.9 vs 12.6); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); Last 3 avg (17.7 vs 5.3); Last 5 avg (16.0 vs 6.2); vs season (+1.0 vs -1.6); Consistency (62% vs 55%); Bust rate (6% vs 10%); Carries / game (15.2 vs 11.9); Touches / game (17.4 vs 14.9); Yards per carry (4.8 vs 3.6); Snap share (68% vs 64%); Goal line carries (20 vs 2); Red zone carries (61 vs 15).
Why Alvin Kamara
Sit Alvin Kamara — projects 17.3, an even matchup vs ATL, but the role is cooling.
Alvin Kamara projects 17.3 points on a 6.7–22.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against ATL. Usage: carries / game at 11.9. Net: bench Alvin Kamara this week.
Working for Kamara: Spike upside (22.4 ceiling).
Working against Kamara: Below your start line (2.5 pts short), Committee back (20% of touches).
Where Kamara leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (22.4 vs 20.4); Implied team total (25.0 vs 23.0); Boom rate (10% vs 6%); Target share (12% vs 8%).
Recent form
Kyren Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 16, 11.1, 15.5, 15.7, 21.8 (oldest to newest).
Alvin Kamara's last 5 games: PPR points 0.7, 14.5, 3.5, 7.2, 5.1 (oldest to newest).
Williams has already beaten Kamara's 17.3 projection in 1 of his 5; Kamara has beaten Williams's 19.8 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Kyren Williams (LA) faces PHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -3.5.
Alvin Kamara (NO) faces ATL, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 25.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Williams's edge is 2.5 points (19.8 to 17.3). Kamara's ceiling (22.4) clears Williams's projection, so a big game from Kamara flips it. Williams's floor (12.7) sits under Kamara's projection, so a quiet game from Williams flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Alvin Kamara comparisons
- Alvin Kamara or David Montgomery17.3 · 17.3
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.3 · 17.3
- Alvin Kamara or Bucky Irving17.3 · 16.8
- Alvin Kamara or Bhayshul Tuten17.3 · 16.8
More Kyren Williams comparisons
- D'Andre Swift or Kyren Williams19.6 · 19.8
- Kyren Williams or Saquon Barkley19.8 · 20.1
- Javonte Williams or Kyren Williams20.2 · 19.8
- Cam Skattebo or Kyren Williams21.1 · 19.8
This week's toughest calls
- Chuba Hubbard or James Cook21.7 · 21.7
- Kenny Gainwell or Rico Dowdle9.9 · 9.9
- Aaron Jones or Jeremiyah Love22.7 · 22.6
- Bhayshul Tuten or Bucky Irving16.8 · 16.8
- Omarion Hampton or Woody Marks12.2 · 12.2
- David Montgomery or Quinshon Judkins17.3 · 17.3
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)