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Scoring
#1 Start

Williams

RB · DAL vs HOU

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

20.2pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Williams

RB · LA vs PHI

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

19.8pts

market

Lower Conf

Javonte Williams or Kyren Williams: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Javonte Williams over Kyren Williams by 0.4. Javonte Williams leads at 20.2. Kyren Williams is the first one out, 0.4 short.

Crowd: 90% of managers started Williams, 97% started Williams.

Highlights

Javonte WilliamsStart
RB · DAL vs HOU

Pros

  • Goal-line back1.2 GL carries/g
  • High floor11.1 floor

Cons

  • Tough matchupTough · D+ vs RB
  • Negative game scriptTrailing
Kyren WilliamsBench
RB · LA vs PHI

Pros

  • Goal-line back1.2 GL carries/g
  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • High floor12.7 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

WilliamsStart
WilliamsBench
Projection20.219.8
Floor11.112.7
Ceiling24.620.4
Touch share32%35%
Opportunity score14.713.9
Matchup grade(recency weighted)D+B-
Implied team total22.823.0

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Williams 12%, Williams 6%.

Latest game on the card: Williams 18.3, Williams 21.8 (PPR points).

Why Javonte Williams

Start Javonte Williams — projects 20.2, a tough matchup vs HOU.

Javonte Williams projects 20.2 points on a 11.1–24.6 range. The matchup grades as tough against HOU. Usage: carries / game at 15.8. Net: start Javonte Williams this week.

Working for Williams: Goal-line back (1.2 GL carries/g), High floor (11.1 floor).

Working against Williams: Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs RB), Negative game script (Trailing).

Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Projection (20.2 vs 19.8); Ceiling (24.6 vs 20.4); Opportunity score (14.7 vs 13.9); Consistency (63% vs 62%); Boom rate (12% vs 6%); Carries / game (15.8 vs 15.2); Touches / game (17.9 vs 17.4); Target share (9% vs 8%); Snap share (69% vs 68%).

Why Kyren Williams

Sit Kyren Williams — projects 19.8, an even matchup vs PHI.

Kyren Williams projects 19.8 points on a 12.7–20.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against PHI. Usage: carries / game at 15.2. Net: bench Kyren Williams this week.

Working for Williams: Goal-line back (1.2 GL carries/g), Positive game script (Favored), High floor (12.7 floor).

Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Floor (12.7 vs 11.1); Touch share (35% vs 32%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs D+); Implied team total (23.0 vs 22.8); Last 3 avg (17.7 vs 16.8); Last 5 avg (16.0 vs 13.6); vs season (+1.0 vs -0.1); Red zone carries (61 vs 54).

Recent form

Javonte Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 6.3, 11.4, 24.2, 8, 18.3 (oldest to newest).

Kyren Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 16, 11.1, 15.5, 15.7, 21.8 (oldest to newest).

Williams has already beaten Williams's 19.8 projection in 1 of his 5; Williams has beaten Williams's 20.2 in 1 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Javonte Williams (DAL) faces HOU, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.

Kyren Williams (LA) faces PHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -3.5.

What flips it

Williams's edge is 0.4 points (20.2 to 19.8). Williams's ceiling (20.4) clears Williams's projection, so a big game from Williams flips it. Williams's floor (11.1) sits under Williams's projection, so a quiet game from Williams flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More Javonte Williams comparisons

More Kyren Williams comparisons

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