nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Williams

WR · WAS vs IND

Sun 9:30 AM

Proj pts

6.2pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Coleman

WR · BUF vs NE

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6pts

market

Lower Conf

Antonio Williams or Keon Coleman: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Antonio Williams over Keon Coleman by 0.2. Antonio Williams leads at 6.2. Keon Coleman is the first one out, 0.2 short.

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Availability & news

  • Keon ColemanPractice: DNP

    Coleman (ankle) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Antonio WilliamsStart
WR · WAS vs IND

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs WR
  • Big-play upside33% boom weeks

Cons

  • Low target share12% target share
  • Thin volume3.7 targets/g
Keon ColemanBench
WR · BUF vs NE

Pros

  • High-scoring spot27.8 team total

Cons

  • Thin volume4.9 targets/g
  • Rotational snaps66% of snaps

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

WilliamsStart
ColemanBench
Projection6.26.0
Floor—4.1
Ceiling—11.6
Target share12%17%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)AC
Implied team total22.527.8

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Williams 2, Coleman 14.

Coleman (Practice: DNP): “Coleman (ankle) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Coleman 4.7 (PPR points).

Why Antonio Williams

Start Antonio Williams — projects 6.2, a favorable matchup vs IND.

Antonio Williams projects 6.2 points. The matchup grades as favorable against IND. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: start Antonio Williams this week.

Working for Williams: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs WR), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).

Working against Williams: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.7 targets/g).

Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.2 vs 6.0); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs C); Last 3 avg (8.4 vs 6.0); Last 5 avg (8.4 vs 6.8); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.2); Boom rate (33% vs 17%).

Why Keon Coleman

Sit Keon Coleman — projects 6.0, an even matchup vs NE, but the role is cooling.

Keon Coleman projects 6.0 points on a 4.1–11.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 4.9. Net: bench Keon Coleman this week.

Working for Coleman: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total).

Working against Coleman: Thin volume (4.9 targets/g), Rotational snaps (66% of snaps).

Where Coleman leads the head-to-head: Target share (17% vs 12%); Implied team total (27.8 vs 22.5); Bust rate (25% vs 33%); Targets / game (4.9 vs 3.7); Snap share (66% vs 42%); Red zone targets (14 vs 2).

Recent form

Antonio Williams's last 3 games: PPR points 3.5, 5.4, 16.4 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Keon Coleman's last 4 games: PPR points 8.9, 1.1, 12.3, 4.7 (oldest to newest).

Williams has already beaten Coleman's 6 projection in 1 of his 3; Coleman has beaten Williams's 6.2 in 2 of his 4.

Matchup

Antonio Williams (WAS) faces IND, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +3.5.

Keon Coleman (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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