Hooper
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
5.6pts
market
Kmet
TE · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
5.4pts
market
Austin Hooper or Cole Kmet: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Austin Hooper over Cole Kmet by 0.2. Austin Hooper leads at 5.6. Cole Kmet is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low TE usage7% target share
- Thin volume2.0 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage10% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Hooper 5, Kmet 9.
Latest game on the card: Kmet 0 (PPR points).
Why Austin Hooper
Start Austin Hooper — projects 5.6, an even matchup vs NO.
Austin Hooper projects 5.6 points on a 3.2–7.5 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.0. Net: start Austin Hooper this week.
Working against Hooper: Low TE usage (7% target share), Thin volume (2.0 targets/g).
Where Hooper leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.6 vs 5.4); Floor (3.2 vs 2.8); Last 3 avg (6.5 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (6.5 vs 4.1); vs season (+1.2 vs -0.8); Consistency (41% vs 36%); Bust rate (23% vs 25%); Touchdown dependence (20% vs 15%); Rest / schedule (11 days rest vs Short week (5d)).
Why Cole Kmet
Sit Cole Kmet — projects 5.4, a favorable matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Cole Kmet projects 5.4 points on a 2.8–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: bench Cole Kmet this week.
Working for Kmet: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Kmet: Low TE usage (10% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Kmet leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (9.6 vs 7.5); Target share (10% vs 7%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs C); Implied team total (23.5 vs 22.8); Boom rate (25% vs 15%); Targets / game (3.0 vs 2.0); Snap share (71% vs 52%); Red zone targets (9 vs 5).
Recent form
Austin Hooper's last 2 games: PPR points 4, 9.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Cole Kmet's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 5.6, 11.5, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Hooper has already beaten Kmet's 5.4 projection in 1 of his 2; Kmet has beaten Hooper's 5.6 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Austin Hooper (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Cole Kmet (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Hooper's edge is 0.2 points (5.6 to 5.4). Kmet's ceiling (9.6) clears Hooper's projection, so a big game from Kmet flips it. Hooper's floor (3.2) sits under Kmet's projection, so a quiet game from Hooper flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)