How Sit or Start works

Sit or Start answers one fantasy football question: of the players you are choosing between this week, who goes in your lineup? You add two to twelve NFL players, and each one gets a Start or Bench call for this week, with the numbers behind it. This page explains where those numbers come from and what each one means.

The call: Start or Bench

Every player you add is ranked by his projected fantasy points for this week in your scoring format. You tell the page how many lineup spots you are filling (one by default). The players with the highest projections fill those spots and are marked Start; everyone else is marked Bench. The line between the two groups is the start line, and the best player below it is the first one out. The page says how many points the first one out falls short.

Below the call, each comparison shows the matchup, the betting line for each game, recent scoring, usage and what would have to happen for the call to flip: whether the benched player's ceiling clears the starter's projection, and whether the starter's floor falls under the benched player's.

The projection

The projection is the median of simulated outcomes: the 50th percentile of the player's fantasy points across many simulations of this week's game, in your scoring settings. Each simulation resamples his usage, his efficiency and the game state. Half the simulated outcomes land above the projection and half below. It is shown to one decimal place. The weekly projection draws on sportsbook player-prop lines, so a player has one only once lines for his game are posted.

Floor and ceiling

The floor is the 20th percentile of the same simulated outcomes and the ceiling is the 90th percentile. Together they show the range a normal week falls in: a narrow range is a steadier play, a wide one a riskier one. They are a range around the projection, not a guarantee: a player can score under his floor or over his ceiling.

Confidence and toss-ups

Each call carries a confidence label: High, Moderate or Lower. It rates how clear-cut the decision is, not how volatile the player is. A starter is measured against the best player on the bench and a benched player against the last one in the lineup, on both the projected points and how much their ranges overlap. It is a label, not a measured accuracy rate.

When the projection gap at the start line is under 1.0point, or the call's confidence is Lower, Nuvela titles the comparison a toss-up in search results. The page still shows the call and which way it leans; a toss-up means the two choices are close enough that news, the matchup or your own read can reasonably decide it.

When there is no call

A player gets no Start or Bench call when there is no projection for him this week (usually because his lines are not posted yet) or when he is ruled out. A player on a bye is marked BYE. If none of the players you added has a projection, the page says there is not enough data to make a call rather than guessing. Once a game kicks off, its players are marked LIVE or FINAL instead of getting a call, because the lineup decision has passed.

Scoring formats

Sit or Start supports PPR (one point per reception), Half PPR (half a point) and Standard (no points for receptions), with PPR the default. Changing the format changes the value of a catch, so the projections of pass catchers move, and the ranking and the call can change with them. A quarterback's projection does not depend on receptions.

How fresh the numbers are

Each comparison page is rebuilt from Nuvela's NFL data service at most once every an hour, so a projection change, a news item or an injury designation can take up to an hour to appear. News items are shown with their source and date, and an injury designation with the time it was reported when the data carries one.

What the numbers do not say

The recent-form section shows each player's last five fantasy scores, but the data does not say which week each game was, so the page never labels them with a week. Early in a season some rates still lean on the previous season, and the page says so when they do. Betting lines, spreads and implied team totals come from the betting market and are not modelled by Nuvela. Sit or Start is for setting fantasy lineups; it is not betting advice.

How to read these numbers

Projection (median)

The 50th percentile of the simulated outcome distribution for this player, in this week’s scoring settings. Each simulation resamples usage, efficiency and game state.

Floor

The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.

Ceiling

The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.

Confidence in the call

How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.

Opportunity score

Expected points from projected volume alone, before any efficiency of this player’s own: each projected touch and target valued at the positional average for the scoring format.

Matchup grade

The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.

Implied team total

The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.

Trend

The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as rising, steady or cooling.

Touch share trend

The same classification, measured on his share of team touches rather than on his points.

Consistency

The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.

Boom rate

The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.

Bust rate

The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.

Vacated touches

Carries and targets belonging to team-mates who are ruled out, on IR, or listed as non-participants for this week, taken at their recent per-game rate.

Defense funnel

Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.

Game script projection

The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.

Compare your players

Open Sit or Start to compare your own players, or browse this week's close calls by position: quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.