Hooper
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
5.6pts
market
Sample
TE · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
5pts
market
Austin Hooper or Drew Sample: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Austin Hooper over Drew Sample by 0.6. Austin Hooper leads at 5.6. Drew Sample is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low TE usage7% target share
- Thin volume2.0 targets/g
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage5% target share
- Thin volume1.7 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Hooper 5, Sample 1.
Why Austin Hooper
Start Austin Hooper — projects 5.6, an even matchup vs NO.
Austin Hooper projects 5.6 points on a 3.2–7.5 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.0. Net: start Austin Hooper this week.
Working against Hooper: Low TE usage (7% target share), Thin volume (2.0 targets/g).
Where Hooper leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.6 vs 5.0); Floor (3.2 vs 2.4); Ceiling (7.5 vs 5.0); Target share (7% vs 5%); Last 3 avg (6.5 vs 3.0); Last 5 avg (6.5 vs 3.0); vs season (+1.2 vs -0.5); Consistency (41% vs 0%); Bust rate (23% vs 42%); Targets / game (2.0 vs 1.7); Red zone targets (5 vs 1); Touchdown dependence (20% vs 18%).
Why Drew Sample
Sit Drew Sample — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs JAX.
Drew Sample projects 5.0 points on a 2.4–5.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 1.7. Net: bench Drew Sample this week.
Working for Sample: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Sample: Low TE usage (5% target share), Thin volume (1.7 targets/g).
Where Sample leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs C); Implied team total (27.0 vs 22.8); Boom rate (25% vs 15%); Snap share (56% vs 52%).
Recent form
Austin Hooper's last 2 games: PPR points 4, 9.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Drew Sample's last 2 games: PPR points 1, 4.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Hooper has already beaten Sample's 5 projection in 1 of his 2; Sample has beaten Hooper's 5.6 in 0 of his 2.
Matchup
Austin Hooper (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Drew Sample (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Hooper's edge is 0.6 points (5.6 to 5). Hooper's floor (3.2) sits under Sample's projection, so a quiet game from Hooper flips it. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)