Hooper
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
5.6pts
market
Smith
TE · GB vs TB
Proj pts
5pts
market
Austin Hooper or Jonnu Smith: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Austin Hooper over Jonnu Smith by 0.6. Austin Hooper leads at 5.6. Jonnu Smith is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low TE usage7% target share
- Thin volume2.0 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.2 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Hooper 41%, Smith 24%.
Latest game on the card: Smith 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Austin Hooper
Start Austin Hooper — projects 5.6, an even matchup vs NO.
Austin Hooper projects 5.6 points on a 3.2–7.5 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.0. Net: start Austin Hooper this week.
Working against Hooper: Low TE usage (7% target share), Thin volume (2.0 targets/g).
Where Hooper leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.6 vs 5.0); Floor (3.2 vs 1.5); Implied team total (22.8 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (6.5 vs 4.0); Last 5 avg (6.5 vs 4.9); vs season (+1.2 vs +0.7); Consistency (41% vs 24%); Bust rate (23% vs 29%); Touchdown dependence (20% vs 14%); Rest / schedule (11 days rest vs 9 days rest).
Why Jonnu Smith
Sit Jonnu Smith — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs TB.
Jonnu Smith projects 5.0 points on a 1.5–8.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TB. Usage: targets / game at 3.2. Net: bench Jonnu Smith this week.
Working for Smith: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Smith: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.2 targets/g).
Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (8.8 vs 7.5); Target share (11% vs 7%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs C); Boom rate (24% vs 15%); Targets / game (3.2 vs 2.0); Snap share (53% vs 52%); Red zone targets (8 vs 5).
Recent form
Austin Hooper's last 2 games: PPR points 4, 9.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Jonnu Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 2.8, 9.7, 1.4, 7, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Hooper has already beaten Smith's 5 projection in 1 of his 2; Smith has beaten Hooper's 5.6 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Austin Hooper (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Jonnu Smith (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Hooper's edge is 0.6 points (5.6 to 5). Smith's ceiling (8.8) clears Hooper's projection, so a big game from Smith flips it. Hooper's floor (3.2) sits under Smith's projection, so a quiet game from Hooper flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)