Hooper
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
5.6pts
market
Gray
TE · KC vs LV
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Austin Hooper or Noah Gray: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Austin Hooper over Noah Gray by 0.5. Austin Hooper leads at 5.6. Noah Gray is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low TE usage7% target share
- Thin volume2.0 targets/g
Pros
- Big-play upside36% boom weeks
Cons
- Low TE usage8% target share
- Thin volume2.6 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Hooper 15%, Gray 36%.
Why Austin Hooper
Start Austin Hooper — projects 5.6, an even matchup vs NO.
Austin Hooper projects 5.6 points on a 3.2–7.5 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.0. Net: start Austin Hooper this week.
Working against Hooper: Low TE usage (7% target share), Thin volume (2.0 targets/g).
Where Hooper leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.6 vs 5.1); Floor (3.2 vs 1.2); Ceiling (7.5 vs 6.0); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C vs D-); Last 3 avg (6.5 vs 2.8); Last 5 avg (6.5 vs 2.8); vs season (+1.2 vs -0.1); Consistency (41% vs 29%); Bust rate (23% vs 43%); Red zone targets (5 vs 3); Touchdown dependence (20% vs 0%).
Why Noah Gray
Sit Noah Gray — projects 5.1, a tough matchup vs LV.
Noah Gray projects 5.1 points on a 1.2–6.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against LV. Usage: targets / game at 2.6. Net: bench Noah Gray this week.
Working for Gray: Big-play upside (36% boom weeks).
Working against Gray: Low TE usage (8% target share), Thin volume (2.6 targets/g).
Where Gray leads the head-to-head: Target share (8% vs 7%); Implied team total (26.0 vs 22.8); Boom rate (36% vs 15%); Targets / game (2.6 vs 2.0); Snap share (53% vs 52%).
Recent form
Austin Hooper's last 2 games: PPR points 4, 9.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Noah Gray's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 1.5, 6.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Hooper has already beaten Gray's 5.1 projection in 1 of his 2; Gray has beaten Hooper's 5.6 in 1 of his 3.
Matchup
Austin Hooper (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Noah Gray (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
What flips it
Hooper's edge is 0.5 points (5.6 to 5.1). Gray's ceiling (6) clears Hooper's projection, so a big game from Gray flips it. Hooper's floor (3.2) sits under Gray's projection, so a quiet game from Hooper flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)