Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
6.9pts
opportunity
Hooper
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
5.6pts
market
Austin Hooper or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start T.J. Hockenson. Bench Austin Hooper. T.J. Hockenson leads at 6.9. Austin Hooper is the first one out, 1.3 short.
Crowd: 32% of managers started Hockenson.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage7% target share
- Thin volume2.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is target share: Hockenson 16%, Hooper 7%.
Latest game on the card: Hockenson 3.1 (PPR points).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Start T.J. Hockenson — projects 6.9, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 6.9 points on a 5.1–11.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: start T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.9 vs 5.6); Floor (5.1 vs 3.2); Ceiling (11.4 vs 7.5); Target share (16% vs 7%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs C); Implied team total (24.5 vs 22.8); Last 3 avg (7.5 vs 6.5); Last 5 avg (6.9 vs 6.5); Consistency (48% vs 41%); Bust rate (20% vs 23%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 2.0); Snap share (78% vs 52%); Red zone targets (11 vs 5).
Why Austin Hooper
Sit Austin Hooper — projects 5.6, an even matchup vs NO.
Austin Hooper projects 5.6 points on a 3.2–7.5 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.0. Net: bench Austin Hooper this week.
Working against Hooper: Low TE usage (7% target share), Thin volume (2.0 targets/g).
Where Hooper leads the head-to-head: vs season (+1.2 vs -0.2); Boom rate (15% vs 13%); Touchdown dependence (20% vs 16%).
Recent form
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Austin Hooper's last 2 games: PPR points 4, 9.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Hockenson has already beaten Hooper's 5.6 projection in 3 of his 5; Hooper has beaten Hockenson's 6.9 in 1 of his 2.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
Austin Hooper (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Hockenson's edge is 1.3 points (6.9 to 5.6). Hooper's ceiling (7.5) clears Hockenson's projection, so a big game from Hooper flips it. Hockenson's floor (5.1) sits under Hooper's projection, so a quiet game from Hockenson flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
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- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
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- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)