Hooper
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
5.6pts
market
Johnson
TE · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
4.5pts
opportunity
Austin Hooper or Theo Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Austin Hooper. Bench Theo Johnson. Austin Hooper leads at 5.6. Theo Johnson is the first one out, 1.1 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low TE usage7% target share
- Thin volume2.0 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Shaky floor4.1 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Hooper 6.5, Johnson 0.6.
Latest game on the card: Johnson 0 (PPR points).
Why Austin Hooper
Start Austin Hooper — projects 5.6, an even matchup vs NO.
Austin Hooper projects 5.6 points on a 3.2–7.5 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.0. Net: start Austin Hooper this week.
Working against Hooper: Low TE usage (7% target share), Thin volume (2.0 targets/g).
Where Hooper leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.6 vs 4.5); Implied team total (22.8 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (6.5 vs 0.6); Last 5 avg (6.5 vs 3.6); vs season (+1.2 vs -3.1); Consistency (41% vs 34%).
Why Theo Johnson
Sit Theo Johnson — projects 4.5, a favorable matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Theo Johnson projects 4.5 points on a 4.1–11.3 range. The matchup grades as favorable against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.9. Net: bench Theo Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Working against Johnson: Shaky floor (4.1 floor).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.1 vs 3.2); Ceiling (11.3 vs 7.5); Target share (17% vs 7%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs C); Boom rate (20% vs 15%); Bust rate (20% vs 23%); Targets / game (4.9 vs 2.0); Snap share (87% vs 52%); Red zone targets (14 vs 5); Touchdown dependence (24% vs 20%).
Recent form
Austin Hooper's last 2 games: PPR points 4, 9.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Theo Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.9, 10.2, 0, 1.9, 0 (oldest to newest).
Hooper has already beaten Johnson's 4.5 projection in 1 of his 2; Johnson has beaten Hooper's 5.6 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Austin Hooper (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Theo Johnson (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
What flips it
Hooper's edge is 1.1 points (5.6 to 4.5). Johnson's ceiling (11.3) clears Hooper's projection, so a big game from Johnson flips it. Hooper's floor (3.2) sits under Johnson's projection, so a quiet game from Hooper flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)