Mayfield
QB · TB vs ATL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points16.2pts
Smith
QB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points15.2pts
Lean
Bench
Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Baker Mayfield over Geno Smith.
- Ahead by
- +1.0pts
- over Smith
- Confidence
- Moderate
- Lean
- Started
- 39%
- of leagues
Flips if
If the weather in Baker Mayfield's game turns worse, start Geno Smith.
Risk
Baker Mayfield has played 1 game since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games. Weather in Baker Mayfield's game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff.
Highlights
MayfieldLeanQB · TB vs ATLUsually 10.4+5.7pts this week
Helps him
- +3.0ptspass TDsHis lines put him at 1.50 passing TDs, above his usual 0.75.
- +1.9ptspass yardsHis lines put him at 216.5 passing yards, above his usual 169.8.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptsrush TDsHis lines put him at 0.17 rushing TDs, below his usual 0.25.
- 9th toughestper passEdgeATL allows plenty of QB chances because teams throw a lot against them; per pass they’re tough (0.48 pts, 9th toughest).
- 33%pressureEdgeThe ATL pass rush gets pressure on 33% of dropbacks.
SmithFirst outQB · NYJ vs LVUsually 15.0+0.2pts this week
Helps him
- +0.7ptsrush TDsHis lines put him at 0.11 rushing TDs, above his usual 0.00.
- LVvs QBsEdgeLV is the 10th softest defense for quarterbacks.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptspass yardsHis lines put him at 220.5 passing yards, below his usual 231.9.
- 28%pressureEdgeThe LV pass rush gets pressure on 28% of dropbacks.
- 10.7floorA quiet week could drop to about 10.7 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionMayfield: 16.2 (best)Smith: 15.2
Rush TD pointsof the projectionMayfield: 1.0 (best)Smith: 0.7
Rush TDs expectedthis weekMayfield: 0.17 (best)Smith: 0.11
Projected team pointsMayfield: 23.0Smith: 23.5 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameMayfield: 0.3 (best)Smith: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameMayfield: 1.5 (best)Smith: 0.1
Pass attempts / gameMayfield: 26.8Smith: 29.6 (best)
Role
Snap shareMayfield: 96%Smith: 100% (best)
Touch shareMayfield: 7%Smith: 7%
Touches / gameMayfield: 3.0Smith: 3.1 (best)
Yards per attemptMayfield: 6.3Smith: 7.8 (best)
Pass TD rateMayfield: 3%Smith: 5% (best)
Rush yards / gameMayfield: 16.5 (best)Smith: 6.0
Points from rushingMayfield: 30%Smith: 4%
Rushing points / gameMayfield: 3.2 pts / game (best)Smith: 0.6 pts / game
Rushing floorMayfield: 1.7 pts / game (best)Smith: 0.5 pts / game
Designed runs / gameMayfield: 0.5Smith: 0.7 (best)
Scrambles / gameMayfield: 2.3 (best)Smith: 1.4
Dropbacks / gameMayfield: 32.3Smith: 34.3 (best)
Designed runs inside the 10 / gameMayfield: 0.3 (best)Smith: 0.0
Sacks per dropbackMayfield: 10%Smith: 9% (best)
INT rateMayfield: 1.9%Smith: 1.0% (best)
Pass aDOTMayfield: 8.2Smith: 6.7
High value touches / gameMayfield: 0.5 (best)Smith: 0.0
Goal line carry shareMayfield: 20% (best)Smith: 0%
Red zone touches / gameMayfield: 1.5 (best)Smith: 0.1
Rush success rateMayfield: 73% (best)Smith: 53%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Mayfield: 0%Smith: 0%
Range
FloorMayfield: 13.8 (best)Smith: 10.7
CeilingMayfield: 23.8 (best)Smith: 22.1
Points from TDssteadier when lowerMayfield: 14%Smith: 0%
Big weeks (25+ pts)Mayfield: 0%Smith: 14% (best)
Dud weeks (under 12 pts)lower is betterMayfield: 54% (best)Smith: 57%
SteadinessMayfield: Very steady (best)±4.8 ptsSmith: Very steady±7.1 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmMayfield: CSmith: B (best)
Game scriptMayfield: Expected to lead (best)Smith: Expected to lead
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterMayfield: 1.3 (best)Smith: 1.7
Defense funnelMayfield: NeutralSmith: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedMayfield: 29th (soft) (best)Smith: 22nd (soft)
Opp sacks / gameMayfield: 2.4Smith: 2.3 (best)
WeatherMayfield: Outdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rainSmith: No concern
Roof / surfaceMayfield: OpengrassSmith: Openturf
Rest / scheduleMayfield: NormalSmith: Normal
Opp paceMayfield: 21st (average)Smith: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp pressure rateMayfield: 33%3rd (tough)Smith: 28% (best)6th (tough)
Pressure facedMayfield: 23% (best)Smith: 31%
Opp rush yds allowedMayfield: 4th (tough)Smith: 30th (soft) (best)
Opp stuff rateMayfield: 20%8th (tough)Smith: 14% (best)30th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedMayfield: 4.010th (tough)Smith: 5.3 (best)31st (soft)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameMayfield: 5.029th (soft)Smith: 5.1 (best)30th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedMayfield: 69%20th (average)Smith: 70% (best)23rd (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgMayfield: 10.0Smith: 15.1 (best)
Last 5 avgMayfield: 10.4Smith: 16.0 (best)
vs seasonMayfield: −0.4Smith: +0.1 (Steady) (best)
Yards per carryMayfield: 5.5 (best)Smith: 1.9
Carries / gameMayfield: 3.0Smith: 3.1 (best)
Pass volume trendMayfield: SteadySmith: Steady
Games since injuryMayfield: 1Smith: None recently
Crowd
Started in leaguesMayfield: 39% (best)Smith: 38%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterMayfield: QB14 (best)Smith: QB18
Yards linepassingMayfield: 216.5Smith: 220.5 (best)
Deciding on someone else?
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