Robinson
RB · ATL @ TB
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points20.5pts
Allen
RB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points12.0ptsUsage estimate
Start
Bench
Bijan Robinson or Braelon Allen: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Bijan Robinson over Braelon Allen.
- Ahead by
- +8.5pts
- over Allen
- Confidence
- High
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If the weather in Bijan Robinson's game turns worse, start Braelon Allen.
Risk
Weather in Bijan Robinson's game: Outdoor · 73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff.
Highlights
RobinsonStartRB · ATL @ TBUsually 20.8−0.3pts this week
Helps him
- +2.0ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 1.05 touchdowns, above his usual 0.71.
- 47%touchesHe handles 47% of his team’s touches, a lead back’s share.
- 1.0inside the 5He averages 1.0 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- 13.4floorA quiet week still projects to about 13.4 points.
Hurts him
- −2.0ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 80.5 rushing yards, below his usual 100.6.
- TBvs RBsEdgeTB is the 10th toughest defense for running backs.
- −7.4last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 7.4 points below his season average.
AllenFirst outRB · NYJ vs LVUsually 10.9+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- LVvs RBsEdgeLV is the 6th softest defense for running backs.
- +5.9last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 5.9 points above his season average.
Hurts him
- −2.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionRobinson: 20.5 (best)Allen: 12.0
TD pointsof the projectionRobinson: 6.3Allen: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekRobinson: 1.05Allen: Our estimate
Projected team pointsRobinson: 20.5Allen: 23.5 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameRobinson: 1.0 (best)Allen: 0.3
Red zone carriesper gameRobinson: 3.4 (best)Allen: 1.3
Red zone targetsper gameRobinson: 0.3Allen: 0.7 (best)
Role
Snap shareRobinson: 71% (best)Allen: 67%
Usage worthptsRobinson: 18.0 (best)Allen: 11.7
Touch shareRobinson: 47% (best)Allen: 33%
Target shareRobinson: 18% (best)Allen: 10%
Touches / gameRobinson: 22.3 (best)Allen: 15.1
Targets / gameRobinson: 4.6 (best)Allen: 2.9
Air yards shareRobinson: Behind the lineAllen: 0.2%
Vacated touches this weekRobinson: 9.8 (best)Allen: 0.0
High value touches / gameRobinson: 5.0 (best)Allen: 2.4
Goal line carry shareRobinson: 88% (best)Allen: 25%
Red zone touches / gameRobinson: 3.7 (best)Allen: 2.0
Rush success rateRobinson: 47% (best)Allen: 42%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Robinson: 5.3% (best)Allen: 2.2%
Usage worth vs scoredRobinson: Earned by usage 18.0Scored 20.8Allen: Earned by usage 11.7Scored 10.9
Rush yards / gameRobinson: 100.6 (best)Allen: 59.7
Points from rushingRobinson: 65%Allen: 71%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsRobinson: 2 RZ targetsAllen: Below
WOPRRobinson: 0.23 (best)Allen: 0.16
RZ target shareRobinson: 8%Allen: 22% (best)
Inside 10 target shareRobinson: 9% (best)Allen: 0%
Catch rateRobinson: 78% (best)Allen: 75%
Rushing points / gameRobinson: 13.5 pts / game (best)Allen: 7.7 pts / game
Rushing floorRobinson: 9.4 pts / game (best)Allen: 5.1 pts / game
Range
FloorRobinson: 13.4 (best)Allen: 7.8
CeilingRobinson: 31.5 (best)Allen: 19.6
Points from TDssteadier when lowerRobinson: 21%Allen: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Robinson: 43% (best)Allen: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterRobinson: 14% (best)Allen: 29%
SteadinessRobinson: Steady (best)±10.7 pts · 7 gamesAllen: Steady±6.2 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmRobinson: C-Allen: B+ (best)
Game scriptRobinson: Expected to trailAllen: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterRobinson: 1.7Allen: 1.7
Defense funnelRobinson: NeutralAllen: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedRobinson: 2nd (tough)Allen: 30th (soft) (best)
Backfield roleRobinson: LeadAllen: Lead
WeatherRobinson: Outdoor73F, 10 mph wind, 100% rainAllen: No concern
Roof / surfaceRobinson: OpengrassAllen: Openturf
Rest / scheduleRobinson: NormalAllen: Normal
Opp paceRobinson: 14th (average)Allen: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateRobinson: 21%7th (tough)Allen: 13% (best)29th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedRobinson: 3.64th (tough)Allen: 5.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedRobinson: 14th (average)Allen: 22nd (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Robinson: 0.0Allen: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedRobinson: 83%24th (soft)Allen: 93% (best)32nd (soft)
Starting QBRobinson: Penix (Active)Allen: Smith (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgRobinson: 13.4Allen: 16.8 (best)
Last 5 avgRobinson: 20.7 (best)Allen: 12.8
vs seasonRobinson: −7.4 (Cooling)Allen: +5.9 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryRobinson: 5.4 (best)Allen: 4.6
Carries / gameRobinson: 18.7 (best)Allen: 13.0
Yards per route runRobinson: 1.95 (best)Allen: 0.71
Receiving aDOTRobinson: −1.3Allen: 0.2
Touch share trendRobinson: SteadyAllen: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesRobinson: 100% (best)Allen: 55%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterRobinson: RB2 (best)Allen: RB21
Yards linerushingRobinson: 80.5Allen: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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