Nix
QB · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
16.6pts
market
Stafford
QB · LA vs PHI
Proj pts
16.2pts
market
Bo Nix or Matthew Stafford: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Bo Nix. Bench Matthew Stafford. Bo Nix leads at 16.6. Matthew Stafford is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Crowd: started Nix 47% · Stafford 66%
Highlights
Pros
- Spike upside26.9 ceiling
- Reliable69% consistency
Cons
- Shaky floor12.0 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Bo Nix
Start Bo Nix — projects 16.6, an even matchup vs SF, but the role is cooling.
Bo Nix projects 16.6 points on a 13.7–22.5 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SF. Usage: pass attempts / game at 36.0. Net: Bo Nix is start this week.
Where Nix leads the head-to-head: Projection (16.6 vs 16.2); Floor (13.7 vs 12.0); Pass attempts (36.0 vs 35.1); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C); vs season (-1.8 vs -1.9); Boom rate (12% vs 0%); Pass attempts / game (36.0 vs 35.1); Rush attempts / game (4.9 vs 1.7); Rush yards / game (20.9 vs 0.1); Rushing production share (21% vs 0%); Grade vs QB (recency weighted) (B- vs C).
Why Matthew Stafford
Sit Matthew Stafford — projects 16.2, an even matchup vs PHI, but the role is cooling.
Matthew Stafford projects 16.2 points on a 12.0–26.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against PHI. Usage: pass attempts / game at 35.1. Net: Matthew Stafford is a bench this week.
Working for Stafford: Spike upside (26.9 ceiling), Reliable (69% consistency).
Working against Stafford: Shaky floor (12.0 floor).
Where Stafford leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (26.9 vs 22.5); Implied team total (23.3 vs 22.3); Last 3 avg (17.3 vs 14.6); Last 5 avg (18.5 vs 14.7); Consistency (69% vs 54%); Bust rate (6% vs 12%); Yards per attempt (7.9 vs 6.4); Touchdown rate (8% vs 4%); Implied total (23.3 vs 22.3).
Recent form
Bo Nix's last 5 games: PPR points 19.5, 10.5, 5.4, 14.1, 24.1 (oldest to newest).
Matthew Stafford's last 5 games: PPR points 13.8, 26.7, 4.1, 27, 20.9 (oldest to newest).
Nix has already beaten Stafford's 16.2 projection in 2 of his 5; Stafford has beaten Nix's 16.6 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Bo Nix (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
Matthew Stafford (LA) faces PHI, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.3, spread -3.0.
What flips it
Nix's edge is 0.4 points (16.6 to 16.2). Stafford's ceiling (26.9) clears Nix's projection, so a big game from Stafford flips it. Nix's floor (13.7) sits under Stafford's projection, so a quiet game from Nix flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.