Henry
RB · BAL @ BUF
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points16.9pts
Allen
RB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points12.0ptsUsage estimate
Lean
Bench
Braelon Allen or Derrick Henry: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Derrick Henry over Braelon Allen.
- Ahead by
- +4.9pts
- over Allen
- Confidence
- Moderate
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start Braelon Allen instead if you want a softer run defense (5.2 yards a carry allowed to 3.6).
Risk
The risk: Henry ran for 45 yards and caught 1 for 4 last week (5.9 points).
Highlights
HenryLeanRB · BAL @ BUFUsually 17.5−0.6pts this week
Helps him
- 2.3inside the 5He averages 2.3 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- 23.0ceilingHis best weeks reach about 23.0 points.
- 43%big weeks43% of his games have been big weeks.
Hurts him
- +3.0spreadEdgeHis team is expected to trail, which can cut his carries.
- −6.9last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 6.9 points below his season average.
AllenFirst outRB · NYJ vs LVUsually 10.9+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- +5.9last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 5.9 points above his season average.
Hurts him
- −2.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionHenry: 16.9 (best)Allen: 12.0
TD pointsof the projectionHenry: 6.8Allen: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekHenry: 1.13Allen: Our estimate
Projected team pointsHenry: 25.8 (best)Allen: 23.5
Goal line carriesper gameHenry: 2.3 (best)Allen: 0.3
Red zone carriesper gameHenry: 5.3 (best)Allen: 1.3
Red zone targetsper gameHenry: 0.1Allen: 0.7 (best)
Role
Snap shareHenry: 57%Allen: 67% (best)
Usage worthptsHenry: 17.6 (best)Allen: 11.7
Touch shareHenry: 44% (best)Allen: 33%
Target shareHenry: 6%Allen: 10% (best)
Touches / gameHenry: 22.4 (best)Allen: 15.1
Targets / gameHenry: 1.7Allen: 2.9 (best)
Air yards shareHenry: Behind the lineAllen: 0.2%
Vacated touches this weekHenry: 0.0Allen: 0.0
High value touches / gameHenry: 4.7 (best)Allen: 2.4
Goal line carry shareHenry: 83% (best)Allen: 25%
Red zone touches / gameHenry: 5.3 (best)Allen: 2.0
Rush success rateHenry: 38%Allen: 42% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Henry: 2.0%Allen: 2.2% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredHenry: Earned by usage 17.6Scored 17.5Allen: Earned by usage 11.7Scored 10.9
Rush yards / gameHenry: 82.7 (best)Allen: 59.7
Points from rushingHenry: 81%Allen: 71%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsHenry: 1 RZ targetAllen: Below
WOPRHenry: 0.08Allen: 0.16 (best)
RZ target shareHenry: 4%Allen: 22% (best)
Inside 10 target shareHenry: 0%Allen: 0%
Catch rateHenry: 83% (best)Allen: 75%
Rushing points / gameHenry: 14.3 pts / game (best)Allen: 7.7 pts / game
Rushing floorHenry: 10.2 pts / game (best)Allen: 5.1 pts / game
Range
FloorHenry: 10.7 (best)Allen: 7.8
CeilingHenry: 23.0 (best)Allen: 19.6
Points from TDssteadier when lowerHenry: 39%Allen: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Henry: 43% (best)Allen: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterHenry: 18% (best)Allen: 29%
SteadinessHenry: Steady (best)±10.3 ptsAllen: Steady±6.2 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionHenry: A (best)2026, 6 gmAllen: B+2026, 7 gm
Game scriptHenry: Expected to trailAllen: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterHenry: 1.0 (best)Allen: 1.7
Defense funnelHenry: NeutralAllen: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedHenry: 15th (average)Allen: 30th (soft) (best)
Backfield roleHenry: LeadAllen: Lead
Roof / surfaceturfHenry: OpenAllen: Open
Rest / scheduleHenry: NormalAllen: Normal
Opp paceHenry: 24th (slow)Allen: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateHenry: 22%5th (tough)Allen: 13% (best)29th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedHenry: 3.64th (tough)Allen: 5.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedHenry: 31st (soft) (best)Allen: 22nd (soft)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameHenry: 0.2 (best)31st (soft)Allen: 0.01st (tough)
Opp catch rate allowedHenry: 70%5th (tough)Allen: 93% (best)32nd (soft)
Starting QBHenry: Huntley (Active)Allen: Smith (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgHenry: 10.6Allen: 16.8 (best)
Last 5 avgHenry: 13.9 (best)Allen: 12.8
vs seasonHenry: −6.9 (Cooling)Allen: +5.9 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryHenry: 3.9Allen: 4.6 (best)
Carries / gameHenry: 21.0 (best)Allen: 13.0
Yards per route runHenry: 1.45 (best)Allen: 0.71
Receiving aDOTHenry: −2.5Allen: 0.2
Touch share trendHenry: SteadyAllen: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesHenry: 99% (best)Allen: 55%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterHenry: RB6 (best)Allen: RB21
Yards linerushingHenry: 78.5Allen: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.