Gibbs
RB · DET vs MIN
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points24.0pts
Allen
RB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points12.0ptsUsage estimate
Start
Bench
Braelon Allen or Jahmyr Gibbs: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Jahmyr Gibbs over Braelon Allen.
- Ahead by
- +12.0pts
- over Allen
- Confidence
- High
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 99%
- of leagues
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Jahmyr Gibbs or a bigger role for Braelon Allen.
Highlights
GibbsStartRB · DET vs MINUsually 28.5−4.5pts this week
Helps him
- 53%touchesHe handles 53% of his team’s touches, a lead back’s share.
- 2.2inside the 5He averages 2.2 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- 6.7per gameHe adds 6.7 targets a game as a receiver.
Hurts him
- −1.9ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 84.5 rushing yards, below his usual 103.3.
- −1.4ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 1.26 touchdowns, below his usual 1.50.
- −1.0ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 34.5 receiving yards, below his usual 45.0.
- −0.8ptscatchesHis lines put him at 4.5 catches, below his usual 5.3.
AllenFirst outRB · NYJ vs LVUsually 10.9+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- LVvs RBsEdgeLV is the 6th softest defense for running backs.
- +5.9last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 5.9 points above his season average.
Hurts him
- −2.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionGibbs: 24.0 (best)Allen: 12.0
TD pointsof the projectionGibbs: 7.6Allen: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekGibbs: 1.26Allen: Our estimate
Projected team pointsGibbs: 24.8 (best)Allen: 23.5
Goal line carriesper gameGibbs: 2.2 (best)Allen: 0.3
Red zone carriesper gameGibbs: 6.0 (best)Allen: 1.3
Red zone targetsper gameGibbs: 1.2 (best)Allen: 0.7
Role
Snap shareGibbs: 79% (best)Allen: 67%
Usage worthptsGibbs: 26.3 (best)Allen: 11.7
Touch shareGibbs: 53% (best)Allen: 33%
Target shareGibbs: 19% (best)Allen: 10%
Touches / gameGibbs: 27.7 (best)Allen: 15.1
Targets / gameGibbs: 6.7 (best)Allen: 2.9
Air yards shareGibbs: 2% (best)Allen: 0.2%
Vacated touches this weekGibbs: 0.0Allen: 0.0
High value touches / gameGibbs: 8.0 (best)Allen: 2.4
Goal line carry shareGibbs: 93% (best)Allen: 25%
Red zone touches / gameGibbs: 7.2 (best)Allen: 2.0
Rush success rateGibbs: 50% (best)Allen: 42%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Gibbs: 1.5%Allen: 2.2% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredGibbs: Earned by usage 26.3Scored 28.5Allen: Earned by usage 11.7Scored 10.9
Rush yards / gameGibbs: 103.3 (best)Allen: 59.7
Points from rushingGibbs: 61%Allen: 71%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsGibbs: AboveAllen: Below
WOPRGibbs: 0.29 (best)Allen: 0.16
RZ target shareGibbs: 15%Allen: 22% (best)
Inside 10 target shareGibbs: 5% (best)Allen: 0%
Catch rateGibbs: 80% (best)Allen: 75%
Rushing points / gameGibbs: 17.3 pts / game (best)Allen: 7.7 pts / game
Rushing floorGibbs: 11.4 pts / game (best)Allen: 5.1 pts / game
Range
FloorGibbs: 15.5 (best)Allen: 7.8
CeilingGibbs: 35.9 (best)Allen: 19.6
Points from TDssteadier when lowerGibbs: 32%Allen: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Gibbs: 60% (best)Allen: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterGibbs: 8% (best)Allen: 29%
SteadinessGibbs: Very steady (best)±13.0 ptsAllen: Steady±6.2 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionGibbs: F2026, 6 gmAllen: B+ (best)2026, 7 gm
Game scriptGibbs: Expected to lead (best)Allen: Expected to lead
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterGibbs: 1.8Allen: 1.7 (best)
Defense funnelGibbs: NeutralAllen: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedGibbs: 10th (tough)Allen: 30th (soft) (best)
Backfield roleGibbs: LeadAllen: Lead
Roof / surfaceturfGibbs: DomeAllen: Open
Rest / scheduleGibbs: NormalAllen: Normal
Opp paceGibbs: 26th (slow)Allen: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateGibbs: 19%11th (average)Allen: 13% (best)29th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedGibbs: 4.112th (average)Allen: 5.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedGibbs: 2nd (tough)Allen: 22nd (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Gibbs: 0.0Allen: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedGibbs: 70%6th (tough)Allen: 93% (best)32nd (soft)
Starting QBGibbs: Goff (Active)Allen: Smith (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgGibbs: 24.2 (best)Allen: 16.8
Last 5 avgGibbs: 27.5 (best)Allen: 12.8
vs seasonGibbs: −4.3 (Cooling)Allen: +5.9 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryGibbs: 4.6Allen: 4.6
Carries / gameGibbs: 22.3 (best)Allen: 13.0
Yards per route runGibbs: 2.06 (best)Allen: 0.71
Receiving aDOTGibbs: 0.9Allen: 0.2
Touch share trendGibbs: RisingAllen: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesGibbs: 99% (best)Allen: 55%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterGibbs: RB1 (best)Allen: RB21
Yards linerushingGibbs: 84.5Allen: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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