Warren
RB · PIT vs CLE
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points15.9pts
Allen
RB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points12.0ptsUsage estimate
Lean
Bench
Braelon Allen or Jaylen Warren: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Jaylen Warren over Braelon Allen.
- Ahead by
- +3.9pts
- over Allen
- Confidence
- Moderate
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 93%
- of leagues
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start Braelon Allen instead if you want the easier matchup (the 6th softest defense for running backs, while Warren faces the 6th toughest defense for running backs).
Risk
The risk: Warren faces the Browns, the 6th toughest defense for running backs.
Highlights
WarrenLeanRB · PIT vs CLEUsually 17.1−1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +2.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.74 touchdowns, above his usual 0.29.
- 22.9ceilingHis best weeks reach about 22.9 points.
Hurts him
- −1.8ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 24.5 receiving yards, below his usual 42.0.
- −1.5ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 65.5 rushing yards, below his usual 80.1.
- −0.9ptscatchesHis lines put him at 2.5 catches, below his usual 3.4.
- CLEvs RBsEdgeCLE is the 6th toughest defense for running backs.
AllenFirst outRB · NYJ vs LVUsually 10.9+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- LVvs RBsEdgeLV is the 6th softest defense for running backs.
Hurts him
- −2.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionWarren: 15.9 (best)Allen: 12.0
TD pointsof the projectionWarren: 4.4Allen: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekWarren: 0.74Allen: Our estimate
Projected team pointsWarren: 21.5Allen: 23.5 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameWarren: 0.1Allen: 0.3 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameWarren: 1.0Allen: 1.3 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameWarren: 0.7Allen: 0.7
Role
Snap shareWarren: 74% (best)Allen: 67%
Usage worthptsWarren: 14.8 (best)Allen: 11.7
Touch shareWarren: 39% (best)Allen: 33%
Target shareWarren: 14% (best)Allen: 10%
Touches / gameWarren: 18.0 (best)Allen: 15.1
Targets / gameWarren: 4.9 (best)Allen: 2.9
Air yards shareWarren: Behind the lineAllen: 0.2%
Vacated touches this weekWarren: 0.0Allen: 0.0
High value touches / gameWarren: 3.6 (best)Allen: 2.4
Goal line carry shareWarren: 100% (best)Allen: 25%
Red zone touches / gameWarren: 1.6Allen: 2.0 (best)
Rush success rateWarren: 46% (best)Allen: 42%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Warren: 4.9% (best)Allen: 2.2%
Usage worth vs scoredWarren: Earned by usage 14.8Scored 17.1Allen: Earned by usage 11.7Scored 10.9
Rush yards / gameWarren: 80.1 (best)Allen: 59.7
Points from rushingWarren: 52%Allen: 71%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsWarren: In lineAllen: Below
WOPRWarren: 0.19 (best)Allen: 0.16
RZ target shareWarren: 13%Allen: 22% (best)
Inside 10 target shareWarren: 8% (best)Allen: 0%
Catch rateWarren: 71%Allen: 75% (best)
Rushing points / gameWarren: 8.9 pts / game (best)Allen: 7.7 pts / game
Rushing floorWarren: 6.1 pts / game (best)Allen: 5.1 pts / game
Range
FloorWarren: 9.5 (best)Allen: 7.8
CeilingWarren: 22.9 (best)Allen: 19.6
Points from TDssteadier when lowerWarren: 10%Allen: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Warren: 29% (best)Allen: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterWarren: 0% (best)Allen: 29%
SteadinessWarren: Steady (best)±9.6 pts · 7 gamesAllen: Steady±6.2 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmWarren: D+Allen: B+ (best)
Game scriptWarren: Expected to lead (best)Allen: Expected to lead
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterWarren: 1.3 (best)Allen: 1.7
Defense funnelWarren: NeutralAllen: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedWarren: 20th (average)Allen: 30th (soft) (best)
Backfield roleWarren: LeadAllen: Lead
Opp defender outWarren: Davis (DT)Allen: None listed
Roof / surfaceWarren: OpengrassAllen: Openturf
Rest / scheduleWarren: NormalAllen: Normal
Opp paceWarren: 22nd (slow)Allen: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateWarren: 23%2nd (tough)Allen: 13% (best)29th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedWarren: 4.628th (soft)Allen: 5.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedWarren: 8th (tough)Allen: 22nd (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Warren: 0.0Allen: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedWarren: 77%14th (average)Allen: 93% (best)32nd (soft)
Starting QBWarren: Rodgers (Active)Allen: Smith (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgWarren: 21.1 (best)Allen: 16.8
Last 5 avgWarren: 19.9 (best)Allen: 12.8
vs seasonWarren: +4.0 (Rising)Allen: +5.9 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryWarren: 5.5 (best)Allen: 4.6
Carries / gameWarren: 14.6 (best)Allen: 13.0
Yards per route runWarren: 2.00 (best)Allen: 0.71
Receiving aDOTWarren: −1.2Allen: 0.2
Touch share trendWarren: SteadyAllen: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesWarren: 93% (best)Allen: 55%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterWarren: RB10 (best)Allen: RB21
Yards linerushingWarren: 65.5Allen: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.