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Scoring
#1 Start

Taylor

RB · IND vs WAS

Sun 9:30 AM

Proj pts

28.6pts

market

High Conf
Bench

Warren

RB · PIT vs CLE

FinalCLE 27 – 24 PIT

Final pts

15.6pts

24 proj · −8.4

Jaylen Warren or Jonathan Taylor: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Jonathan Taylor. Bench Jaylen Warren. Jonathan Taylor leads at 28.6. Jaylen Warren is the first one out, 4.6 short.

Crowd: 99% of managers started Taylor, 83% started Warren.

Availability & news

  • Jonathan TaylorPractice: Limited

Highlights

Jonathan TaylorStart
RB · IND vs WAS

Pros

  • Clear start4.6 pts clear
  • Bell-cow role46% of touches
  • Goal-line back1.4 GL carries/g
Jaylen WarrenBench
RB · PIT vs CLE

Pros

  • Spike upside30.1 ceiling

Cons

  • Below your start line4.6 pts short

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

TaylorStart
WarrenBench
Projection28.624.0
Floor10.710.1
Ceiling36.030.1
Touch share46%32%
Opportunity score16.712.5
Matchup grade(recency weighted)A-B-
Implied team total26.020.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Taylor 29%, Warren 6%.

Taylor is listed: Practice: Limited.

Latest game on the card: Taylor 9.2, Warren 20.6 (PPR points).

Why Jonathan Taylor

Start Jonathan Taylor — projects 28.6, a run-funnel matchup vs WAS, with a rising role.

Jonathan Taylor projects 28.6 points on a 10.7–36.0 range. The matchup grades as run-funnel against WAS. Usage: carries / game at 19.0. Net: start Jonathan Taylor this week.

Working for Taylor: Clear start (4.6 pts clear), Bell-cow role (46% of touches), Goal-line back (1.4 GL carries/g).

Where Taylor leads the head-to-head: Projection (28.6 vs 24.0); Floor (10.7 vs 10.1); Ceiling (36.0 vs 30.1); Touch share (46% vs 32%); Opportunity score (16.7 vs 12.5); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs B-); Implied team total (26.0 vs 20.5); Last 3 avg (21.2 vs 13.5); Last 5 avg (17.4 vs 12.4); vs season (+2.0 vs -1.5); Boom rate (29% vs 6%); Carries / game (19.0 vs 13.2); Touches / game (21.7 vs 15.7); Target share (11% vs 10%); Yards per carry (4.9 vs 4.5); Snap share (83% vs 51%); Goal line carries (24 vs 14); Red zone carries (71 vs 41).

Why Jaylen Warren

Sit Jaylen Warren — projects 24.0, an even matchup vs CLE.

Jaylen Warren projects 24.0 points on a 10.1–30.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against CLE. Usage: carries / game at 13.2. Net: bench Jaylen Warren this week.

Working for Warren: Spike upside (30.1 ceiling).

Working against Warren: Below your start line (4.6 pts short).

Where Warren leads the head-to-head: Consistency (60% vs 43%); Bust rate (6% vs 18%).

Recent form

Jonathan Taylor's last 5 games: PPR points 17.4, 5.9, 25.1, 29.2, 9.2 (oldest to newest).

Jaylen Warren's last 5 games: PPR points 6.4, 14.9, 10.3, 9.7, 20.6 (oldest to newest).

Taylor has already beaten Warren's 24 projection in 2 of his 5; Warren has beaten Taylor's 28.6 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Jonathan Taylor (IND) faces WAS, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated run-funnel. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -3.5.

Jaylen Warren (PIT) played CLE (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.

What flips it

Taylor's edge is 4.6 points (28.6 to 24). Warren's ceiling (30.1) clears Taylor's projection, so a big game from Warren flips it. Taylor's floor (10.7) sits under Warren's projection, so a quiet game from Taylor flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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