Taylor
RB · IND @ JAX
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points14.5pts
Allen
RB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points12.0ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Braelon Allen or Jonathan Taylor: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Jonathan Taylor gets the nod over Braelon Allen.
- Ahead by
- +2.5pts
- over Allen
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 98%
- of leagues
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start Braelon Allen instead if you want a softer run defense (5.2 yards a carry allowed to 3.0).
Risk
The risk: Taylor faces the Jaguars, the 5th toughest defense for running backs.
Highlights
TaylorToss-upRB · IND @ JAXUsually 19.6−5.1pts this week
Helps him
- 46%touchesHe handles 46% of his team’s touches, a lead back’s share.
- 1.9inside the 5He averages 1.9 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- 21.3ceilingHis best weeks reach about 21.3 points.
Hurts him
- −2.5ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.72 touchdowns, below his usual 1.14.
- −2.3ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 60.5 rushing yards, below his usual 83.9.
- −0.9ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 16.5 receiving yards, below his usual 25.4.
- 18.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 18.3 points.
AllenFirst outRB · NYJ vs LVUsually 10.9+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- LVvs RBsEdgeLV is the 6th softest defense for running backs.
- +5.9last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 5.9 points above his season average.
Hurts him
- −2.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionTaylor: 14.5 (best)Allen: 12.0
TD pointsof the projectionTaylor: 4.3Allen: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekTaylor: 0.72Allen: Our estimate
Projected team pointsTaylor: 18.3Allen: 23.5 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameTaylor: 1.9 (best)Allen: 0.3
Red zone carriesper gameTaylor: 3.7 (best)Allen: 1.3
Red zone targetsper gameTaylor: 0.3Allen: 0.7 (best)
Role
Snap shareTaylor: 80% (best)Allen: 67%
Usage worthptsTaylor: 19.1 (best)Allen: 11.7
Touch shareTaylor: 46% (best)Allen: 33%
Target shareTaylor: 12% (best)Allen: 10%
Touches / gameTaylor: 22.4 (best)Allen: 15.1
Targets / gameTaylor: 3.7 (best)Allen: 2.9
Air yards shareTaylor: Behind the lineAllen: 0.2%
Vacated touches this weekTaylor: 0.0Allen: 0.0
High value touches / gameTaylor: 4.6 (best)Allen: 2.4
Goal line carry shareTaylor: 81% (best)Allen: 25%
Red zone touches / gameTaylor: 4.0 (best)Allen: 2.0
Rush success rateTaylor: 40%Allen: 42% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Taylor: 3.6% (best)Allen: 2.2%
Usage worth vs scoredTaylor: Earned by usage 19.1Scored 19.6Allen: Earned by usage 11.7Scored 10.9
Rush yards / gameTaylor: 83.9 (best)Allen: 59.7
Points from rushingTaylor: 78%Allen: 71%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsTaylor: 2 RZ targetsAllen: Below
WOPRTaylor: 0.16Allen: 0.16
RZ target shareTaylor: 9%Allen: 22% (best)
Inside 10 target shareTaylor: 10% (best)Allen: 0%
Catch rateTaylor: 65%Allen: 75% (best)
Rushing points / gameTaylor: 15.2 pts / game (best)Allen: 7.7 pts / game
Rushing floorTaylor: 12.7 pts / game (best)Allen: 5.1 pts / game
Range
FloorTaylor: 8.8 (best)Allen: 7.8
CeilingTaylor: 21.3 (best)Allen: 19.6
Points from TDssteadier when lowerTaylor: 35%Allen: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Taylor: 40% (best)Allen: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterTaylor: 8% (best)Allen: 29%
SteadinessTaylor: Steady (best)±9.8 ptsAllen: Steady±6.2 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionTaylor: D+2026, 6 gmAllen: B+ (best)2026, 7 gm
Game scriptTaylor: Expected to trailAllen: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterTaylor: 1.5 (best)Allen: 1.7
Defense funnelTaylor: NeutralAllen: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedTaylor: 1st (tough)Allen: 30th (soft) (best)
Backfield roleTaylor: LeadAllen: Lead
Roof / surfaceTaylor: OpengrassAllen: Openturf
Rest / scheduleTaylor: NormalAllen: Normal
Opp paceTaylor: 23rd (slow)Allen: 9th (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateTaylor: 17%19th (average)Allen: 13% (best)29th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedTaylor: 3.01st (tough)Allen: 5.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp pass yds allowedTaylor: 30th (soft) (best)Allen: 22nd (soft)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Taylor: 0.0Allen: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedTaylor: 82%22nd (soft)Allen: 93% (best)32nd (soft)
Starting QBTaylor: Jones (Active)Allen: Smith (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgTaylor: 17.1 (best)Allen: 16.8
Last 5 avgTaylor: 16.6 (best)Allen: 12.8
vs seasonTaylor: −2.5 (Cooling)Allen: +5.9 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryTaylor: 4.2Allen: 4.6 (best)
Carries / gameTaylor: 20.0 (best)Allen: 13.0
Yards per route runTaylor: 1.21 (best)Allen: 0.71
Receiving aDOTTaylor: −1.3Allen: 0.2
Touch share trendTaylor: SteadyAllen: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesTaylor: 99% (best)Allen: 55%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterTaylor: RB17 (best)Allen: RB21
Yards linerushingTaylor: 60.5Allen: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.