New

Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

New comparison

Toss-up

Spann-Ford

TE · DAL vs ARI

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points4.4pts

First out

Mallory

TE · IND @ JAX

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points4.0ptsUsage estimate

Toss-up

Bench

Brevyn Spann-Ford or Will Mallory: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Brevyn Spann-Ford gets the nod over Will Mallory.

Ahead by: +0.4pts; over Mallory
Confidence: Lower; The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate

Mallory's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Mallory

The case for Mallory is more of the snaps (43% to 39%) and a softer pass defense.

Flips if

Start Will Mallory instead if you want more of the snaps (43% to 39%).

Risk

Will Mallory has played 2 games since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games.

Highlights

Injuries as of Sat 4:00 AM ET

Spann-FordToss-upTE · DAL vs ARIUsually 2.4+2.0pts this week

Helps him

+1.3ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.22 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
30.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 30.8 points, a high scoring spot.
ARIvs TEsEdgeARI is the 7th softest defense for tight ends.

Hurts him

5%targetsHe draws only 5% of his team’s targets.
1.9per gameHe sees only 1.9 targets a game.

MalloryFirst outTE · IND @ JAXUsually 1.5+2.4pts this week

Helps him

+1.4ptspaceMost players at his position produce more than he has, so we expect him to bounce back some.
+1.0ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
+0.5ptsrecent workHis work has picked up in his last few games.

Hurts him

−0.5ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection4.44.0

TD pointsof the projection1.3Our estimate

Expected TDsthis week0.22Our estimate

Projected team points30.818.3

Red zone targetsper game0.10.5

Role

Snap share39%43%

Usage worthpts2.88.0

Target share5%15%

Targets / game1.94.5

Air yards share2%21%

Vacated targets this week1.23.5

RZ target share2%25%

Inside 10 target share0%0%

Catch rate69%22%

Separation2.4 yds3.0 yds

YAC over expected+0.7+0.4

Usage worth vs scoredEarned by usage 2.8Scored 2.4Earned by usage 8.0Scored 2.0

WOPR0.080.33

Range

Floor1.21.3

Ceiling7.77.6

Points from TDssteadier when lower0%0%

Big weeks (15+ pts)0%0%

Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is better83%100%

SteadinessVolatile±3.0 pts · 6 gamesVolatile±1.9 pts · 4 games

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his positionB+2026, 7 gmC2026, 6 gm

Game scriptExpected to leadExpected to trail

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.11.5

Defense funnelPassNeutral

Opp pass yds allowed21st (average)30th (soft)

Starting QBPrescott (Active)Jones (Active)

Opp defender outNolen (DT)Johnson (SAF)

Roof / surfaceRetractable roofturfOpengrass

Rest / scheduleNormalNormal

Opp pace2nd (fast)23rd (slow)

Opp deep targets allowed / game0.618th (average)0.01st (tough)

Opp catch rate allowed78%29th (soft)68%6th (tough)

Form

Last 3 avg3.52 games

Last 5 avg2.72 games

vs season+1.1 (Rising)0.0

Yards per route run1.550.47

Receiving aDOT2.510.9

Target share trendSteady2 games

Games since injuryNone recently2

Crowd

Nuvela position ranklower is betterTE34TE37

Yards linereceiving15.5Our estimate

Deciding on someone else?

Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.

Sit or start?