Kincaid
TE · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
15.6pts
market
Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
13.8pts
market
Dalton Kincaid or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Dalton Kincaid. Bench T.J. Hockenson. Dalton Kincaid leads at 15.6. T.J. Hockenson is the first one out, 1.7 short.
Crowd: 79% of managers started Kincaid.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
- Spike upside21.9 ceiling
- Heating up14.8 last 3
Cons
- Rotational role37% of snaps
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
- Spike upside18.9 ceiling
Cons
- Below your start line1.7 pts short
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is snap share: Kincaid 37%, Hockenson 78%.
Latest game on the card: Kincaid 3.8, Hockenson 3.1 (PPR points).
Why Dalton Kincaid
Start Dalton Kincaid — projects 15.6, an even matchup vs NE, with a rising role.
Dalton Kincaid projects 15.6 points on a 5.8–21.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 4.1. Net: start Dalton Kincaid this week.
Working for Kincaid: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total), Spike upside (21.9 ceiling), Heating up (14.8 last 3).
Working against Kincaid: Rotational role (37% of snaps).
Where Kincaid leads the head-to-head: Projection (15.6 vs 13.8); Floor (5.8 vs 5.1); Ceiling (21.9 vs 18.9); Implied team total (27.8 vs 24.5); Last 3 avg (14.8 vs 7.5); Last 5 avg (10.4 vs 6.9); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.2); Boom rate (20% vs 13%); Touchdown dependence (24% vs 16%).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Sit T.J. Hockenson — projects 13.8, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 13.8 points on a 5.1–18.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: bench T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE), Spike upside (18.9 ceiling).
Working against Hockenson: Below your start line (1.7 pts short).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Target share (16% vs 15%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs B-); Consistency (48% vs 45%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 4.1); Snap share (78% vs 37%).
Recent form
Dalton Kincaid's last 5 games: PPR points 0, 7.8, 18, 22.5, 3.8 (oldest to newest).
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Kincaid has already beaten Hockenson's 13.8 projection in 2 of his 5; Hockenson has beaten Kincaid's 15.6 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
What flips it
Kincaid's edge is 1.8 points (15.6 to 13.8). Hockenson's ceiling (18.9) clears Kincaid's projection, so a big game from Hockenson flips it. Kincaid's floor (5.8) sits under Hockenson's projection, so a quiet game from Kincaid flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Dalton Kincaid comparisons
- Dalton Kincaid or Travis Kelce15.6 · 15.1
- Dalton Kincaid or Sam LaPorta15.6 · 14.9
- Dalton Kincaid or Tyler Warren15.6 · 16.3
- Dalton Kincaid or George Kittle15.6 · 17.3
More T.J. Hockenson comparisons
- Dalton Schultz or T.J. Hockenson13.6 · 13.8
- Kenyon Sadiq or T.J. Hockenson13.5 · 13.8
- Harold Fannin Jr. or T.J. Hockenson13.2 · 13.8
- Sam LaPorta or T.J. Hockenson14.9 · 13.8
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)